Civil aviation market in the world. Boeing market forecast. 1st place: American General Dynamics
The global civil aircraft market is 90% “captured” by the American company Boeing and the European manufacturer Airbus. However, it seems that the hegemony of these companies will soon come to an end. Who is capable of ousting these titans? Which companies and countries are going to get into the fray?
The civil aircraft market is a global growing market without national borders and at the same time is characterized by fierce competition from national manufacturers. The enormous technological challenges and high costs mean that only a small number of countries and a few large companies operate in the aircraft manufacturing industry. Thus, in the producer market aircraft competition is oligopolistic in nature, i.e. dominated by a few large international companies, having a strong impact on the entire market.
The leaders of the civil aircraft industry in recent decades have been Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EC), occupying more than 90% of the global passenger aircraft market, however, the technological development of the industry and the emerging demand patterns in the coming years will lead to the destruction of the already familiar duopoly of Western aircraft manufacturing giants. In this work, we deliberately do not include in the analysis the plight of the domestic aviation industry, which was the subject of another article by the author (Tolkachev S.A. New look of the domestic aviation industry// “Capital of the Country”, 09/01/2010. ), in order to consider in its purest form the tough global market for civil airliners, where Russia is destined for a place on the margins after the inglorious surrender of positions (in fact, like in the First World War) as a result of the collapse of the USSR and the socialist bloc in 1989-1991. One of the forms of indemnity for the supposed “defeat” of the USSR in the Cold War with the West was the surrender to the “winners” of the gigantic civil aircraft market, estimated at that time at 40% of the world market. As will become clear from the further presentation, only on this basis “democratic” Russia, as the legal successor of the USSR, lost at least 1 trillion in 20 years. dollars (!) or the total value of oil exports for the same period. Therefore, take a serious approach to analyzing the global airliner market with the participation of fragments of the mighty Soviet aircraft industry, which today is timidly knocking on the door either with unfinished late Soviet developments (Tu-204, Tu-334, An-148), or with generics of Western models (Sukhoi Superjet 100, MS-21), I just don’t want to.
1. Main segments of the civil airliner market
All civil aircraft produced in the world, intended for the mass transportation of passengers, are divided into the following segments depending on the type of fuselage and flight range:
1) medium and long-range wide-body aircraft:
The fuselage diameter is from 5 to 6 meters. An airplane with two aisles between the seats in the cabin. The row usually ranges from 7 to 10 passenger seats. For comparison, narrow-body aircraft usually have a fuselage diameter of 3-4 meters. In the passenger cabin of a wide-body aircraft, the seats are arranged in 3-5 rows. On average, a wide-body aircraft can carry 300-500 people.
The following wide-body aircraft are currently in operation (Table 1):
Table 1. Major wide-body aircraft in service.
| aircraft type | years of manufacture | number of passengers | maximum range | total released |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A 300 | 1972-2007 | 270 | 7 000 | 561 |
| A 310 | 1982-1997 | 205-280 | 9 000 | 255 |
| IL-86 | 1980-1997 | 350 | 4 600 | 106 |
| MD-11 | 1988-2000 | 298-410 | 13 400 | 200 |
| B 747 | 1969-present | 366-524 | 14 800 | 1 419 |
| B 767 | 1982-present | 180-375 | 11 300 | 1 000 |
| A 340 | 1991-present | 261-475 | 16 700 | 374 |
| IL-96 | 1993-present | 300-436 | 12 000 | 29 |
| A 330 | 1994-present | 255-295 | 13 000 | 671 |
| B 777 | 1994-present | 301-451 | 17 500 | 901 |
| A 380 | 2007-present | 525-963 | 15 400 | 60 |
| B 787 | 2009-present | 210-350 | 16 300 | 7 |
| A 350 (project) | ---- | 270-412 | 15 700 | ----- |
2) medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft:
The fuselage diameter is up to 4 meters. Compared to wide-body aircraft, narrow-body aircraft carry a much smaller number of passengers and, as a rule, have a shorter flight range. Maximum passenger capacity is 289 people.
Narrow-body aircraft in particular include (Table 2):
- The Airbus A320 is the most popular European passenger jet aircraft.
- The Boeing 737 is the most popular passenger jet in the world.
- Il-62 is a narrow-body aircraft with the longest flight range.
- Tu-154 is the most popular Soviet passenger jet aircraft,
Table 2. Major narrow-body aircraft in service.
| Aircraft type | Years of manufacture | Passengers | Maximum range | Total issued |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caravelle | 1959-2005 | 104-130 | 1 800 | 285 |
| IL-62 | 1966-2010 | 186 | 11 000 | 277 |
| Tu-154 | 1968-2011 | 150-180 | 3 500 | 1 020 |
| Yak-42 (142) | 1977-2002 | 100-120 | 4 000 | 188 |
| MD-80 | 1980-1998 | 140-172 | 4 500 | 1 191 |
| B 757 | 1982-2004 | 200-280 | 7 200 | 1 050 |
| B 717 (MD95) | 1998-2006 | 98-106 | 3 800 | 156 |
| B 737 | 1968-present | 85-215 | 6 000 | 6 285 |
| A 320 (318/319) | 1987-present | 107-220 | 6 500 | 4 181 |
| Tu-204 | 1990-present | 164-212 | 7 500 | 66 |
| Tu-334 | 2000-present | 102-138 | 4 100 | 5 (test) |
| Embraer ERJ 195X | 2006-present | 106-118 | 3 990 | n/a |
| Bombardier CSeries | plan 2013 | 100-150 | 5 500 | --- |
| MS-21 (project) | plan 2016 | 150-212 | 5 500 | --- |
| COMAC C919 (project) | plan 2014 | 168-190 | n/a | --- |
3) regional aircraft:
Regional aircraft include even smaller aircraft. They carry up to 100 passengers over distances of up to 2-3 thousand kilometers. These aircraft can be equipped with both turboprop and turbojet engines. Such aircraft include aircraft of the ERJ, CRJ, ATR, Dash-8 and SAAB families (Table 3).
Table 3. Main types of regional aircraft in service.
| Aircraft type | Years of manufacture | Passengers | Maximum range | Total issued |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| An-24 | 1962-1979 | 48 | 1 000 | 1367 |
| Yak-40 | 1966-1981 | 27-36 | 1 300 | 1013 |
| BAe 146/Avro RJ | 1987-2003 | 85-100 | 2 000 | 387 |
| Fokker 100 | 1986-1997 | 85-119 | 3 100 | 238 |
| An-28 (An-38) | 1969-present | 18-27 | 900 | 191 |
| Bombardier DHC-8 (series) | 1984-present | 37-78 | 2 500 | 844 for 2008 |
| ATR 42 | 1984-present | 40-50 | 1 500 | 390 |
| ATR 72 | 1989-present | 50-75 | 1 300 | 408 |
| Bombardier CRJ (series) | 1991-present | 50-100 | 3 800 | 533 |
| Embraer ERJ 145 (series) | 1999-present | 35-50 | 3 000 | 1000 for 2007 |
| An-140 | 1999 - present | 52 | 2 400 | 12 |
| IL-114 | 2001-present | 64 | 1 500 | 16 |
| Embraer E-Jet (series) | 2002-present | 78-100 | 4 600 | 660 |
| Sukhoi Superjet 100 | 2008-present | 68-98 (130) | 4 500 | 8 |
| An-148 (158) | 2009-present | 70-99 | 6 200 | 13 |
| ARJ21 (China) | 2008 | 70-100 | 3 700 | 1 (experience) |
| Mitsubishi RegionalJet (project) | 2014 plan | 70-90 | 3 000 | --- |
| Tu-324 (414) project | no data | 52-76 | 3 500 | --- |
4) local planes:
The smallest class of passenger aircraft consists of local aircraft designed to transport a small number of passengers (from 20) over distances of up to 1000 kilometers. They are most often equipped with turboprop or piston engines. The most common aircraft of this class are produced by Cessna and Beechcraft.
For a better understanding, we present comparative table 4, which includes all segments of civil airliners.
Table 4. Segments of the passenger aircraft market and their projected capacity (in kind and value) for the period 2005-2024.
2. Main companies participating in the civil airliner market
The passenger aircraft market has historically been dominated by American and European manufacturers. Boeing and Airbus are the largest manufacturers of civil aircraft in the world.
Airbus S.A.S (pronounced Airbus) is one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies, producing passenger, cargo and military transport aircraft of the same name. The company's headquarters are located in Toulouse, France. In 2001, according to French law, it was merged into a joint stock company or “S.A.S.” (French Société par Actions Simplifiée - simplified joint stock company). Airbus's sole shareholder is EADS. Airbus has a staff of about 50 thousand people and is concentrated mainly in four European countries ah: France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain. The final assembly of products is carried out at the company's factories in the cities of Toulouse (France) and Hamburg (Germany).
Airbus's range of civil aircraft began with the twin-engine A300. The shortened version of the A300 is known as the A310. Based on the lack of success of the A300, Airbus began developing the A320 project with an innovative fly-by-wire control system. The A320 was a great commercial success for the company. The A318 and A319 are shortened versions of the A320, which, with some modifications, are offered by Airbus for the Airbus CorporateJet market. A stretched version of the A320 is known as the A321 and competes with the later Boeing 737 models.
Inspired by the success of the A320 family, management Airbus decided to develop a family of even larger airliners. This is how the twin-engine A330 and four-engine A340 appeared. One of the key features of the new aircraft is the new wing design; it has a greater relative thickness, which increases its structural efficiency and internal volumes for fuel. The Airbus A340-500 has a flight range of 16,700 kilometers, which is the second longest flight range of commercial jet aircraft after the Boeing 777-200LR (range 17,446 km).
The company is especially proud of its proprietary fly-by-wire technology, unified cockpit and on-board systems used across all families of proprietary aircraft; they make crew training and retraining for new models much easier.
The company's latest development, the A350XWB, is designed to compete with Boeing's new 787 model.
The Boeing Company– one of the world's largest manufacturers of aviation, space and military equipment.
The headquarters is located in Chicago (Illinois, USA).
The company's main production facilities are located in the following cities: Everett (Washington State), California, St. Louis (Missouri).
The company produces a wide range of civil and military aircraft, being, along with Airbus, the largest aircraft manufacturer in the world. In addition, Boeing produces a wide range of military aerospace equipment (including helicopters) and conducts large-scale space programs (for example, the CST-100 spacecraft).
The company's factories are located in 67 countries. The company supplies its products to 145 countries. Boeing works with more than 5,200 suppliers in 100 countries.
In 2001, a division of Boeing International was formed, which controls the company's work in 70 countries, except for the US market, where it is responsible for the development and implementation of the company's global development strategy. It determines and evaluates competitive advantages and opportunities in the host country for the development of intellectual resources and technologies, development of partnerships and business.
3. Comparative characteristics of Airbus and Boeing production
The companies operate primarily in the narrow-body and wide-body short- and medium-haul aircraft segments.
Below is a comparative description of the production of certain aircraft models by year.
- ? B-737 and A320. Medium-capacity aircraft for medium-haul airlines, each type has many modifications. In recent years, the A320 has sold in larger volumes than Boeing products.
Table 5. Deliveries of AirbusA320 and Boeing 737 aircraft for 1988-2010
| 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A320 | 401 | 402 | 386 | 367 | 339 | 289 | 233 | 232 | 236 | 257 | 241 |
| B-737 | 398 | 372 | 290 | 330 | 302 | 212 | 202 | 173 | 223 | 299 | 281 |
| 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A320 | 222 | 168 | 127 | 72 | 56 | 64 | 71 | 111 | 119 | 58 | 58 | 16 |
| B-737 | 320 | 281 | 135 | 76 | 89 | 121 | 152 | 218 | 215 | 174 | 146 | 165 |
- B-747 and A380. Large capacity aircraft for medium and long haul airlines. Asian airlines, traditional users of the 747, are the main customers of the A380. Currently, B-747s are produced in quantities of no more than 10 units per year, there are very few new orders for passenger aircraft (out of 99 B-747s ordered since the beginning of 2006, only 27 are passenger ones). At the same time, the A380 order portfolio has increased by 60 passenger aircraft since the beginning of 2006.
- B-767 and A330. The Airbus aircraft has proved more commercially successful in recent years.
Table 6. Deliveries of Airbus A330 and Boeing 767 aircraft for 1994-2009.
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A330 | 78 | 72 | 68 | 62 | 56 | 47 | 31 | 42 | 35 | 43 | 44 | 23 | 14 | 10 | 30 | 9 |
| B-767 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 40 | 44 | 44 | 47 | 42 | 43 | 37 | 41 |
- B-777 and A340. Both aircraft appeared at the same time, but due to the greater fuel efficiency of the B-777 and a number of other factors, the American company sold twice as many aircraft as their European competitors.
Table 7. Deliveries of Airbus A340 and Boeing 777 aircraft for 1993-2009
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B-777 | 88 | 61 | 75 | 65 | 40 | 36 | 39 | 47 | 61 | 55 | 83 | 74 | 59 | 32 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| A-340 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 24 | 28 | 33 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 24 | 33 | 28 | 19 | 25 | 22 |
There are very few new orders for the A340. It is assumed that the A350 will compete with the B-777, but the development of the latter is still very far from completion.
Embraer (Empresa Brasileirade Aeronautica) is a Brazilian aircraft manufacturing company, one of the leaders in the global market of passenger regional aircraft. Headquarters in São José dos Campos, State of São Paulo.
Founded in 1969 as a state-controlled company. In the 1990s, it faced a serious crisis, after which it was completely privatized in 1994 (the state retained only “ golden share", giving the possibility of a veto on the supply of military aircraft).
The company specializes in regional airliners and produces commercial, corporate, military, and agricultural aircraft. Production facilities are concentrated in Brazil.
By 2010, the company shared third or fourth place with Canada's Bombardier among the largest suppliers of commercial airliners, behind Boeing and Airbus. In 2009, the company delivered more than 240 aircraft to commercial customers.
The number of personnel is 17 thousand people (2005).
Embraer Jet - a family of twin-engine narrow-body medium-range passenger aircraft produced by the Brazilian company Embraer. Includes 4 modifications: E-170, E-175, E-190 and E-195. The E-Jet was first unveiled at the 1999 Le Bourget Air Show. Serial production began in 2002.
Table 8. Deliveries of Embraer E-jet 190, 195 aircraft in total for 2005-2010, pcs.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 37 | 32 | 52 | 33 | 23 |
Bombardier Inc. (Bombardier), Canadian engineering company. The headquarters is located in Montreal, Quebec.
The company was founded in Valcourt (Quebec) in 1942 under the name L´Auto-NeigeBombardierLimitée by Joseph-Armand Bombardier. The company has been involved in aircraft manufacturing since the mid-1980s. In 2003, the company sold its Bombardier Recreational Products division, which produced snowmobiles, all-terrain vehicles, jet skis, and motor boats, concentrating on railway and aircraft engineering.
The company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of business aircraft, regional aircraft, as well as railway equipment and trams. The company's main divisions are the world's largest manufacturer of railway equipment, Bombardier Transportation, and Bombardier Aerospace, the world's third largest manufacturer of civil aircraft after Boeing and Airbus. In 2008, Bombardier employed 59.8 thousand people.
Bombardier Canadair RegionalJet (CRJ) is a family of regional passenger jet narrow-body aircraft. The aircraft made its first flight on May 10, 1991. The CRJ-100 became the first modern aircraft among 50-seater aircraft. In terms of speed, the aircraft can be compared with larger aircraft, while its efficiency is quite consistent with its class. The family consists of several modifications, differing in fuselage length and flight range: CRJ100, CRJ 200, CRJ 700, CRJ 900.
The CRJ 900 model is designed to carry 88 passengers. The Bombardier CRJ 900 made its first flight on February 21, 2001. In addition to the standard one, there are several other versions of the aircraft - extended and for long-distance flights.
The Bombardier CRJ 1000 program was launched by Bombardier Aerospace on February 19, 2007. First flown in September 2008, the 100-seat CRJ1000 is the latest addition to the Canadian Regional Jet family.
Table 9. Deliveries of Bombardier CRJ 900, 1000 aircraft for 2005-2010, pcs.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 48 | 78 | 92 | 82 | 87 |
4. Growth forecasts for the global civil airliner market
According to Airbus forecasts, in the next 20 years, airlines around the world will buy almost 25 thousand new mainline aircraft for a total of 2.9 trillion. dollars. Of these, about 10 thousand will be needed to replace the aging fleet, and another 15 thousand will be needed to further increase transportation capacity. Moreover, narrow-body airliners will be in greatest demand. About 18 thousand of them will be sold for 1.27 trillion. dollars, which will amount to 70% of the total volume of all supplies in kind. As a result, by 2030 the global airline fleet will almost double and exceed 30 thousand aircraft. The high demand for new aircraft is driven by the growing need to replace aircraft with low fuel efficiency, as well as the dynamic development of new markets and the growth of passenger traffic on existing routes.
Boeing forecasts that the market for new commercial aircraft will be worth $3.6 trillion over the next 20 years. USD Market growth will be accompanied by the recovery of the global economy after the crisis and increased demand for new and more efficient aircraft. According to the current market overview 2011, by 2029 the market capacity will be 30,900 new passenger and cargo aircraft.
Table 10. Future market value (in 2009 prices) and aircraft deliveries by region by 2029.
| Region | Market value of supplies in billions of dollars. | Aircraft supplies, pcs. |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific Asia region | 1 320 | 10 320 |
| North America | 700 | 7 200 |
| Europe | 800 | 7 190 |
| Near East | 390 | 2 340 |
| Latin America | 210 | 2 180 |
| CIS | 90 | 960 |
| Africa | 80 | 710 |
| Total | 3 590 | 30 900 |
The table shows that in the long term, the volume of passenger traffic will increase by 5.3% per year under the influence of economic growth in regions with different structures of demand for aircraft. The fastest-growing segment of the global market will continue to be single-aisle aircraft, driven by the explosion of low-cost airlines, the development of new markets such as India, China and Southeast Asia, and continued volatility in fuel prices. The growth rate of the narrow-body aircraft segment has outpaced the wide-body segment over the past ten years. This gap will continue to widen as airlines phase out older generation aircraft.
The highest growth rates are observed in the Asia-Pacific region, in which China is the undisputed leader.
Today, this region provides about 1/3 of the world's air transport. As a result of the growth of this market, by 2029, the Asia-Pacific region will account for almost 43% of inbound, outbound and domestic traffic volumes. China alone will need 4,300 new airliners over the next 20 years.
Domestic airlines will also be the most active buyers of wide-body aircraft, generating about 40% of total demand.
Another dynamic market is the Middle East, which is experiencing some of the highest air traffic growth in recent years. Middle Eastern airlines have achieved rapid growth by taking advantage of their geographic location, the region's demographics, the acquisition of modern aircraft and well-thought-out investment and business development plans. To the Middle East for the period 2011-2029. 2,340 aircraft will be delivered.
The following table provides more detailed data on the distribution of deliveries of different types of airliners across the main regions.
Table 11. Aircraft deliveries by region according to size for 2011-2029.
| Region | Regional (pieces) | With one pass (pcs.) | With two passes (pcs.) | Large (pieces) | Total (pieces) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific-Asia region | 470 | 6 710 | 2 840 | 300 | 10 320 |
| North America | 800 | 5 180 | 1 180 | 40 | 7 200 |
| Europe | 310 | 5 380 | 1 340 | 160 | 7 190 |
| Near East | 70 | 1 100 | 1 000 | 170 | 2 340 |
| Latin America | 20 | 1 800 | 350 | 10 | 2 180 |
| CIS | 200 | 570 | 160 | 30 | 960 |
| Africa | 50 | 420 | 230 | 10 | 710 |
| Total | 1 920 | 21 160 | 7 100 | 720 | 30 900 |
5. Increased competition and the end of duopoly
Now the total portfolio of firm orders from Airbus and Boeing for narrow-body aircraft is approaching 3 thousand units, which is only 16% of the forecast demand for these aircraft over a twenty-year period. Thus, the global market for long-haul aircraft has all the prerequisites for the emergence of at least one more major player, which, under certain circumstances, may well displace the giants of the world aircraft industry. The duopoly is slowly coming to an end. Of all the aircraft manufacturing companies in the world, the Canadians were the first to challenge the Big Two - Airbus and Boeing. Five years ago, Bombardier decided to begin developing the C-Series narrow-body aircraft, designed to carry 110–130 passengers. Initially, the implementation of this project was hampered by the intractability of aircraft engine manufacturers, who, according to some experts, under pressure from Airbus and Boeing, did not show a desire to create new engine modifications specifically for the new Bombardier aircraft. They motivated their decision by the narrowness of the sales market. But thanks to the efforts of the Canadian authorities and the position of Pratt & Whitney Canada, as well as the changed market situation, this problem was ultimately resolved. Having received financial support from the province of Quebec, Pratt & Whitney nevertheless developed a new family of Pure Power engines. These are exactly the units that Irkut will use on its MS-21. But unlike the MC-21 program, the C-Series project has already passed more than half of its journey. In the middle of last year, Bombardier presented working drawings of the SC100 test aircraft, and the final design of the left fuselage skin of the aircraft was shown at the Saint-Laurent plant in Montreal. Now at this enterprise the installation of composite panels on the tail section of the airliner is already in full swing.
The new aircraft should take off in 2012, and the first deliveries of the aircraft to airlines are scheduled for 2013. But, despite all the advantages of the new airliners, Bombardier cannot yet boast of a large portfolio of orders for them: Canadians have only 90 firm contracts for the purchase of SC100 and the same number of options. The main customers of these aircraft are the Lufthansa Group, the Irish leasing company LCI and the American Republic Holdings. But Bombardier pins its main hopes on the Chinese market. The Canadian company predicts it will become the second largest market for commercial aviation within the next 20 years. To achieve this goal, the company decided to cooperate with Chinese aircraft manufacturing enterprises.
China has its own project to create a long-range narrow-body aircraft - the C919. And this project is nothing more than China's long-term plan to destroy the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing. The name of the model and its digital code have enormous symbolic meaning for the Chinese. The first number “9” can be interpreted as “the long time it takes to overcome a difficult route”, and “19” means that the first Chinese mainline aircraft will be able to carry 190 passengers. In addition to the basic version, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) began designing two more models - for 156 and 168 passengers.
Within a few months, COMAC expects to complete the overall technical design of the aircraft and select suppliers for all key systems. This process has been actively going on for the last year and a half.
COMAC plans for the first flight of the C919 to take place in 2014, and commercial operation of the airliner will begin in 2016. In total, the Chinese intend to produce 2,500 new aircraft within 20 years. True, COMAC does not yet have paid firm orders for the C919. But there is no doubt that they will appear in the near future.
The expansion of three new long-haul aircraft manufacturers into the market at once forced Airbus and Boeing to begin full-scale preparations to repel an attack. Airbus has decided to launch a re-engine program for the A320 family of airliners, which, after being equipped with new engines, will be called NEO. The European concern intends to invest about 1 billion euros in this project. It is planned to install the same engines of the LEAP-X and PurePower family on the new aircraft. Moreover, Airbus is going to equip its modernized airliners with new wingtips, which will further reduce fuel consumption by 3-4%. Thus, the total fuel savings will be about 18%. The design of the A320 NEO airframe is 95% similar to the currently operating aircraft of this family. The European concern will only have to strengthen the wing and pylons. Remotorized aircraft will appear on the market in 2016 and will cost only $6 million more than their predecessors. In total, Airbus plans to sell about 4 thousand A320 NEO. And it is possible that this plan will be implemented sooner or later. In a month and a half of sales, Airbus has already acquired three major clients. The launch customer for the A320 NEO was Virgin America, which signed a contract for the purchase of 30 aircraft. And soon its example was followed by the Indian IndiGo and the Malaysian AirAsia, which entered into preliminary agreements to purchase more than 200 new aircraft. This caused EADS (Airbus parent company) shares to rise 5% on the day. The company's management is confident that the residual value of the existing A320 models will not suffer much, but the newly formed competitors of the European concern will have a hard time.
Boeing considered the launch of the NEO project a belated response to its Next Generation family of aircraft, which have been in production for more than ten years. At the same time, Boeing intends to create a new family of aircraft in the near future to replace existing versions of the Boeing 737 NG. The company understands Airbus' expectations from the release of the new NEO model, but does not see the need for such aircraft; the company's strategy, in accordance with the expectations of its customers, is aimed at designing a new aircraft.
The Brazilian Embraer is also considering the possibility of creating a new mainline aircraft for 110–130 passengers. The company is waiting for Boeing to make a final decision on the release of its new airliner, and only then will it consider whether it should pursue a competing project.
***
The modern aviation industry is a global network structure that includes thousands of specialized suppliers of various components and manufacturing services located around the world, incl. and in Russia.
The current state of the aviation industry market is characterized by a stage of stabilization. It is characterized by an established mature market for the products of the relevant industry. This means that the aviation industry market is segmented:
- medium and long-range wide-body aircraft;
- medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft;
- regional jets;
- local planes.
An important feature of the state of the civil airliner market today is the continuous increase in the role of innovation to achieve success: changing situations in the external environment require a reconsideration of the role and place of innovation in the activities of companies. An analysis of the development trends of the world market in the 20th century revealed main feature: Market development involves a continuous increase in volatility, instability and unpredictability.
The basis of the development strategies of the world's leading civil aircraft manufacturers is the constant technological improvement of their products and the reduction of operating costs of the proposed aircraft models, including fuel consumption and repair and maintenance costs, as well as the development of deep and long-term relationships with airlines by providing them with comprehensive operational support , modernization and renewal of the aircraft fleet. At the present stage, the range of products manufactured by Boeing and Airbus, as well as Embraer and Bombardier, is largely similar when compared by characteristics such as size, flight range and cost of the aircraft.
Aircraft manufacturing involves the design and creation of full-fledged aircraft and its components. The few and very expensive products are subsequently used for both civilian and military purposes.
There is no doubt that the most convenient means of transport for traveling is an airplane. About significance aircraft in matters of national defense there is no need to speak. All this makes the aircraft manufacturing industry a priority and places the world's largest aircraft manufacturing companies in a special category.
Aviation giants
The aircraft industry today uses almost all mechanical engineering products. In addition, all innovative scientific and technical processes are undoubtedly used in it. It is logical to assume that if a state is able to locate such a production complex on its territory, this means its financial solvency and the ability to show itself as a reliable business partner.
Directly leasing aircraft can be an interesting idea for a startup. A striking example of such a business is described.
The constant development of the industry involves the use of super-new information technologies (we are talking not only about the manufacture of aircraft, but also the components for them). From the economic side, this is, of course, a definite and very serious financial investment. On the other hand, every state needs the aviation industry. This formulation of the question makes it necessary to provide assistance to such enterprises from the state.
Below is a list of the ten largest aircraft manufacturing companies in the world. The Forbes rating was based on the market value of enterprises, which placed them in the top 10.
| Place in the general Forbes list | Name of company | Country of location | Market value for 2016, billion dollars |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolls-Royce Holdings | Great Britain | |||
| Great Britain | ||||
| Northrop Grumman | ||||
| General Dynamics | ||||
| Netherlands | ||||
| The Boeing Company |
10th place: we start with Rolls-Royce Holdings
A division of a well-known company specializes in the production of engines for civil aviation. The organization has been working in the aircraft sector since 1904. Over more than a century of history, the corporation has earned worldwide recognition and the desire of foreign customers to cooperate with it. In this regard, Russia is not lagging behind: it is Rolls-Royce that offers to supply its engines for the future Russian-Chinese long-haul airliner.
The company employs 54,100 people. Annual revenue last year was $20.18 billion.
9th place: French company Thales
The company's 20.6 billion capital value is deservedly due to the diligent work that dates back to 1918. Today the organization is busy producing information systems of aerospace importance. The company's products include components for military aviation and electronics for fighter aircraft.
The organization is named after Thales of Miletus, an ancient Greek philosopher. Offices are located in more than 50 countries around the world, and the total staff of all employees reaches 68,000 people. Sales revenue for 2016 was $16.5 billion.
8th place: British company BAE Systems plc
BAE Systems is essentially a British defense company promoting its products in the aerospace field. It works with foreign customers (mainly from the USA) through its subsidiary BAE Systems Inc. The British Aerospace (BAe) division works directly with the aerospace environment.
The organization actively lobbies its interests in the former Soviet republics. For example, since 2001 it has owned 49% of the national Kazakh carrier Air Astana.
According to the latest data, the organization employs 88,200 people worldwide. The headquarters itself is located in London. Now about the financial component: in 2016, the corporation’s revenue amounted to $24 billion.
7th place: French corporation Safran
Aerospace and aviation equipment are among several areas of this French industrial conglomerate. The company mainly specializes in commercial and military engines, as well as the restoration and repair of jet engine models. There is also a turbo direction - turboshaft engines for helicopters and turbines for rockets. In addition, other components for aircraft and engines are manufactured.
In total, the company employs 57,495 people. Revenue for 2016 was $18.23 billion.
6th place: Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
This corporation was organized in 1994 and united Northrop Corporation and Grumman Corporation. Aviation and space are not the only areas of its activity. As equipment for this, the company produces military fighters and even airships (Airlander 10).
Northrop Grumman Corporation received revenue for 2016 equivalent to $24.51 billion. In total, this organization employs 67,000 people.
5th place: Raytheon
The top five starts with the American manufacturer, which receives more than 90% of its revenue from defense orders. The products are quite specific in nature - these are radio-controlled missiles and guidance systems, components of space systems, guidance technologies.
Raytheon's name is interestingly translated - "Divine Ray", which is associated with the initial production of ray tubes since 1922. Raytheon retrained itself as an aviation-related enterprise during World War II. The project was the development of protection against Japanese kamikaze attacks, which turned into large-scale production.
Today, Raytheon Corporation employs 63,000 people. Revenue for 2016 was $24.07 billion.
4th place: American General Dynamics
One of the giants in the production of military and aerospace technical arsenal is the fifth on the planet in concluding contracts related to the supply of aircraft for defense needs.
The organization is a supplier of powerful information systems, which include intercontinental missiles, satellite data processing systems and similar equipment. For a long time, General Dynamics collaborated with NASA.
In addition to aerospace products, the company is also involved in the production of naval and combat systems. The leading role here lies in the development of information technologies. In total, the organization employs 98,800 employees, who generated revenue of $31.35 billion for the past 2016.
3rd place: Bronze Dutch Airbus Group (formerly EADS)
The organization today is better known under the name Airbus Group. It is the largest aerospace corporation in Europe, with headquarters not only in the Dutch capital, but also in Paris and Ottobrunn.
The company is relatively young, formed by the merger of other large specialized organizations in 2000. EADS was renamed Airbus Group only in 2013. At the same time, management announced a restructuring, after which three divisions are expected: Airbus will engage in commercial aircraft manufacturing, Airbus Helicopters will specialize in the production of helicopters, and Airbus Defense & Space will become a platform for the production of military and space equipment.
The company's revenue for 2016 was $73.7 billion. The Airbus Group employs 133,000 people.
2nd place: silver medalist Lockheed Martin
Lockheed Martin Corporation is a global company that specializes in the defense and space segment of the market. Prominent examples of production include fighter-bombers (5th generation F-35) and models of F-22 class fighters.
The company's main client is the native American government, which brings in approximately 82% of revenue. The rest is provided by international contracts (work under the arms sales program). The number of commercial orders is only 1% of revenue. The company's full profit for 2016 is $79.9 billion.
In total, this organization employs 97,000 people. The headquarters is located in American state Maryland, in the city of Bethesda.
1st place: undoubted leader Boeing
The headquarters of this largest global manufacturer is located in Chicago. Specialization - production of aviation, military and even space equipment. The military arsenal is handled by the Boeing Integrated Defense Systems division, and the civil direction is under the wing of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
In addition, one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies in the world produces a wide range of military equipment (including helicopters) and participates in large-scale space programs (an example is the CST-100 spacecraft).
The company's capitalization is $108.9 billion, and its revenue for last year equal to 94.6 billion dollars. Today this structure employs 150,500 people. Factories operate in 67 countries, and goods are supplied to 145 countries. And that’s not all the numbers: the organization’s partners are more than 5,200 suppliers from 100 countries.
Features of the aircraft industry
Initially, the aircraft industry was formed as an industry of a military nature. They began to think about releasing civilian objects later. This made the aircraft manufacturing sector monetized and gave certain specific features:
- The production of military products is determined by the military orders of one’s own state and the possibilities of world export supplies.
- The production of civil aircraft depends entirely on the receipt of national and global orders. Naturally, these figures can fluctuate greatly depending on demand.
The production of airliners may well become a domestic import substitution program. Find out more detailed information you can in this article.
A separate issue concerns the cost of production itself. It may be surprising that back in the mid-90s it was valued at 4 times less than the automobile industry, i.e., only $250 billion. Everything is explained simply: airplanes cannot be called a mass product, they are piece production. The annual production of civil aviation objects hardly exceeds the volume of 1000 pieces; for the military structure, the figures may be even less, only 600 pieces per year.
The situation is somewhat saved by the established production of so-called light aircraft. The great demand for them is also due to their affordable price - from 20 to 80 thousand dollars. Most often, such products are used for educational, sports or business purposes.
The high knowledge intensity of the entire process is also of great importance. Typically, the development of any aircraft (both military and civilian) can take from 5 to 10 years. High prices for the design and creation of aircraft objects are so large that few companies in the world can afford such activities:
Position on the Russian market
The leader of the domestic aircraft industry is the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC). It was created in 2006 and united all previously existing aircraft design organizations in the country.
The corporation's revenue is 295 billion rubles. During its operation, more than 200 aircraft were delivered. In recent years, special emphasis has been placed on the development of the short-haul Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ100) line. In 2016 alone, 34 deliveries of this aircraft model took place. Today, more than 50 such machines are in operation, and 13 of them are used outside of Russia.
The aircraft industry in Russia can be considered as an object of venture business. Read more about this concept.
Another promising direction of UAC is the new generation of medium-haul airliners MC21, the first flight tests of which took place last year. There is a demand for them: immediately after the tests, 175 orders and applications for the production of such equipment were received. UAC plans to produce 72 such airliners per year.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, an American-European duopoly emerged in the production of long-haul passenger airliners (i.e., aircraft with a capacity of 150 or more people and a maximum flight range of more than 4000–5000 km): the market was divided by Boeing and Airbus (aircraft of the same size are produced in Russia - Tu -204 and Il-96, but their production is sporadic for state needs). The same concentration occurred in the production of regional jet airliners (with a capacity of up to 100 people and a maximum flight range of less than 4,000 km): by the early 2000s, there were only two companies left that truly mass-produced such aircraft - the Canadian Bombardier and the Brazilian Embraer (in Russia). and in Ukraine there is, or rather, small-scale production of this class of aircraft An-148 vegetates). It was in the regional segment that the countries that wanted to enter the narrow circle of jet passenger aircraft manufacturers first made their mark: Russia with the Sukhoi Superjet project, China with the ARJ-21 aircraft, and Japan with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet aircraft. But the long-haul aircraft market is much more capacious and profitable, and at the turn of the 2010s. three more players announced projects in this segment (analogues of the Boeing 737 and A319/320/321): Russia with the MC-21 project of the Irkut corporation, China with the C919 aircraft of the COMAC company and the Canadian Bombardier, whose new CSeries airliner is approaching in passenger capacity " from below" to the shortest versions of the Boeing 737 and to the European A319.
Giants Predictions
Aircraft corporations regularly publish 20-year forecasts for the passenger aircraft and transportation markets—few industries present such long-term forecasts to the public. The demand for specific models is not indicated - the breakdown is by class of aircraft. Forecasts are compiled on the basis of thorough and many years of marketing and economic research, but, of course, they cannot foresee events that once hit the market hard, such as the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 or the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. As follows from the latest Boeing forecast (published in the fall of 2014), by 2033, 36,770 mainline airliners will be produced, and their global fleet will increase from 20,910 aircraft in 2013 to 42,180 in 2033. The cost of aircraft that will produced before 2033, will amount to a mind-boggling figure of $5.2 trillion (almost a third of US GDP or about three times Russia’s GDP in 2014). Of those produced over the forecast twenty years, 25,680 aircraft, i.e., almost 70%, will be, in the Boeing classification, “long-haul single-aisle aircraft” (Boeing 737, A320, MC-21 and C919), and in value terms their share will be about 48%. Regional aircraft, to which Boeing also includes Sukhoi Superjet, will produce 2,490 units, but their monetary share will be less than 2%, or about $100 billion. At the same time, the market capacity of Russia and the CIS countries, which are allocated by the American corporation as a separate regional market along with the North America, Latin America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa, will amount to 1,330 aircraft worth $150 billion by 2033 (or 3% of the entire world market). The former USSR will need 990 MS-21 aircraft, and 160 regional airliners.
Why did “Tu” and “Il” disappear?
IN best years The Soviet aviation industry produced up to 150 passenger jets per year. In 1991, last year existence of the USSR, 37 Tu-154, six Il-86, one Il-96, two Tu-204 and 13 Yak-42 were produced, i.e. a total of 59 jet airliners, while EADS (now Airbus) produced about 170, and Boeing - about 600 passenger aircraft. Throughout the 90s. in the West, processes of consolidation of the aircraft industry were underway (as a result of which in the United States, instead of three aircraft manufacturers, only Boeing remained), while all Soviet design bureaus and factories were privatized (or separated into state enterprises) separately. After the collapse of the USSR, the civil aircraft industry in Russia found itself in a state of collapse, which was led by a combination of many factors: a severe economic crisis, the lack of implementation of new projects, the lack of modern technical maintenance and financial support for aircraft sales, and the collapse of air travel resulting in a large surplus fleet of virtually free for airlines cars Beginning in 2001, the state began to look for forms of industry consolidation, which ended only in the second half of this decade with the creation of the UAC. At the same time, there was a difficult process of integration “from below”, the core of which was the two surviving companies that had funds from sales of fighters to China and India - Sukhoi and Irkut. It is not surprising that it was these two companies that put forward projects for new civil aircraft - Sukhoi Superjet, which won the competition in 2002 to create a regional aircraft, and MC-21, the government decree on the creation of which was issued in 2010. At the same time, neither Tu-204, of which only about 80 units were produced, neither the Il-96 (more than 20) never became truly mass-produced due to lack of production in the 90s - early 2000s. their engines, very weak sales support, and the IL-96 - and because of the four-engine design, less economical than that of its Western competitors. At the same time, Boeing and Airbus did not sit on Russian market with folded arms and during the 2000s. took a dominant position on it as Soviet aircraft were written off en masse. The issue of international cooperation is no less important. In the mid-2000s, the European EADS was the closest to becoming the main partner of the Russian aviation industry: it became the owner of a 10% stake in Irkut, and the Russian VTB Bank bought a 5% stake in EADS on the market. However, decisive steps towards partnership were never taken - for various reasons, including political ones.
Airbus's 20-year forecast, published at the Le Bourget air show in June, is not radically different from Boeing's, but is more moderate. Sales by 2034 will be $4.9 trillion, the total number of new aircraft produced will be 32,585 aircraft (12% lower than Boeing), the number of single-aisle aircraft for passengers will be 22,927, and the cost will be 55%. There is, however, a notable difference: Airbus predicts that demand for ultra-large jets (such as the A380 and Boeing 747) will be 1,550 aircraft, while Boeing believes that only 620 units will find buyers. This is not surprising, since the largest and most modern aircraft of this type - the A380 - is produced by Airbus, while Boeing abandoned the development of a machine of this size in favor of a radical modernization of the Boeing 747. The forecast of the European aviation concern suggests that in 20 years the number of largest air hubs in in the world will increase to 91 from the current 47 (from Russia both now and in 20 years they will be represented only by the Moscow air hub), and the A380 concept is focused on transportation between them.
Share for Sukhoi Superjet
Bombardier of Canada's forecast, published last year, focused on aircraft of the size it produces. The company's marketers believe that by 2033, the demand for airliners from 100 to 149 seats (which includes short versions of the Boeing 737 and A319, as well as the CSeries airliner being developed by the Canadian company) will amount to 7,100 units, or $465 billion in monetary terms. Embraer, in its forecast published at the last Le Bourget, expects the delivery of 6,350 jet aircraft with a capacity of 70 to 130 seats by 2034, including 380 in Russia and the CIS countries.
Thus, all forecasts of global aircraft manufacturers provide for a significant market niche for Sukhoi Superjet. The truly serial production of this aircraft that began last year (37 units were produced) led to the fact that it took up approximately 10% of the total sales of regional jet airliners.
View from Russia
A representative of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft said that, according to company forecasts, for the period 2015–2034. The market capacity of cars with a capacity of 91–120 seats will be 2600 units, and the share of SSJ will be 14%, i.e. 364 units.
However, much more ambitious is the MC-21 project, aimed, like the Chinese C919, at the most capacious niche of the world market, where it will face much tougher competition from Boeing and Airbus, which will launch it on the market in 2016–2017. its new modifications of the Boeing 737MAX and A320neo, equipped with new highly efficient engines. The MC-21 will have the same engine as the A320neo, but it will be the first airliner with a composite (black) wing and will be equipped with a large number of the latest innovative systems, only the first flight is planned in 2016 (Sukhoi Superjet from the first test flight to the first commercial one took about four years).
Executive Director of the Aviaport agency Oleg Panteleev believes that the feasibility of sales plans for new types of Russian aircraft is determined by three factors. Firstly, the production capabilities of assembly sites - and there are no risks here. Secondly, the stability of cooperation in the supply of components - and the Russian aviation industry does not control this risk in the event of an aggravation of the international situation. Thirdly, the opportunities for promotion to the world market - this issue is also not under the control of the aviation industry, but if the existing export support policy is maintained, the situation will look controlled.
Dear Colleagues!
On behalf of the United Aircraft Corporation, we present a long-term forecast for the development of the civil commercial segment. The event is important for us, since market expectations, direction vector and airline development are the message for us that we are trying to take into account when creating a line of aircraft.
UAC is currently undergoing a period of formation and strengthening in the market. You know that our product line now includes aircraft in almost all segments from 30 seats. We understand that in order to occupy a worthy niche in the civil aviation market, it is extremely necessary and necessary to be competitive not only internally Russian Federation, but also on the foreign market.
We try to take into account the requirements of airlines and their expectations not only in the appearance of the aircraft, but in their technical specifications. The total market volume until 2035 is estimated at approximately $6 trillion, with 42,000 aircraft ranging from 30 seats. And as I said, today the UAC has projects in varying degrees of readiness in almost all areas.
First of all, this is the Sukhoi SuperJet 100. Currently, about 100 aircraft have been delivered, which are operated in Russia, Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Yesterday STLC on the Sukhoi SuperJet 100 program. This is an extremely important event for us, since it plans to revive regional transportation in the south of Russia based at Rostov airport. We will also sign today to increase the fleet of aircraft for the period 2020-2021 in addition to those that Azimut will receive under the contract in 2017-2018 - this is 8 aircraft.
In the narrow-body aircraft segment, where the market is most competitive, you know that we have the MC-21 project. The aircraft made its first flight in May of this year and is now undergoing flight and certification tests. The first deliveries will be in 2019; according to our expectations, this is a worthy competitor that will take its rightful place in the fleet of narrow-body aircraft. Of the large aircraft, we have a project with COMAC - this is the ShFDMS. We registered a joint venture. Active work is underway with Chinese partners, the technical appearance of this aircraft, its characteristics and the SHFDMS family of aircraft (wide-body long-range aircraft) have been agreed upon. A joint venture has been registered, active work is underway with Chinese partners, the technical appearance of the aircraft, characteristics, family are being agreed upon, and we are now at the beginning of preliminary design.
In the regional aircraft segment - the turboprop Il-114. That year, as you know, the decision was made to launch the Il-114-300 program. The aircraft's first flight is expected in 2018, with deliveries in 2021. There will be a second conference with operators as part of MAKS. I hope that the aircraft will fully meet the expectations of regional companies and we will try to take into account their requirements.
That's all I wanted to say. I give the floor to Tamara Kakushadze, vice president for marketing of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft.
Thank you for your attention!
Good afternoon, dear colleagues!
Literally in an hour. We are not afraid, we are even interested if you can compare our assessment with their assessment. This is a kind of professional experience for our team of marketers who present the UAC forecast.
This year is an anniversary for the UAC. We have been around for 10 years. We believe that we have achieved quite significant success. Starting with the fact that we have retained and developed our competencies in creating civil passenger aircraft. We have more than 100 SSJ 100 aircraft in operation. MC-21 currently has more than 175 firm orders, while still at the certification testing stage.
Also, as Mr. Masalov said, this year we signed an agreement and opened a joint venture with the Chinese aircraft manufacturing corporation COMAC in China for the full-scale launch of a program to create a wide-body family.
Over these 10 years, we have really actively improved and developed the basis and tools for forming a high-quality, fairly detailed and qualified overview of the market, its forecast for the long term, precisely so that our strategic objectives, which are set within the framework of the product line, meet the market requirements that we expect in the future.
I'll start with an overview of the Russian market. In terms of transportation market volume, we currently occupy 7th place in the world. We believe that by 2036, the passenger turnover of Russian airlines will increase almost 2.5 times and reach almost 500 billion passenger kilometers. At the same time, we estimate the cumulative average annual growth rate at 4.1%, which is slightly below the world average. Over the next 20 years, according to our forecast Russian airlines will receive, based on their needs, about 1,170 new aircraft.
The existing firm orders currently placed by airlines for various products in different categories cover about 47% of expected future demand. It is worth noting that this demand is met to the greatest extent in groups of narrow-body aircraft with a size above 120 seats. It's about 57%. Among this order, a significant share is occupied by orders for the MC-21-300 aircraft.
We also predict high demand in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 60-120 seats, somewhere around 15% of the total demand, which is higher than the world average. This is primarily due to the fact that active work is currently underway, including with government support, to develop effective methods of stimulating sales, including the introduction of effective operating leasing. We are actively working with the State Transport Leasing Company to ensure that the proposals we create are interesting and attractive to airlines.
CIS countries. We continue to classify certain countries in the region in this format because, in our assessment, the general problems of socio-economic development, close economic, cultural, and interpersonal ties between our countries determine precisely similar trends. In fact, there is mutual dependence, including one that influences the development of the passenger transportation market. According to our estimates, the volume of passenger air transportation in the CIS countries will increase by 2.5 times until 2036. At the same time, in the global passenger turnover, passenger transportation in the countries of the CIS region is less than 1%.
We believe that, taking into account the pace of development, taking into account the stabilization of population migration indicators, the average annual growth rate of passenger traffic in the region as a whole over 20 years will be about 4.6%. Demand for new passenger aircraft in this region is approximately estimated at 260 new aircraft. Existing orders currently placed cover about 18% of expected demand. But it is worth noting that in the countries of this region the most active buyers are the secondary market, purchasing more than half of their total demand on it. This was taken into account in our forecast, so it may seem modest to you at first glance, but we see such forecast indicators specifically for new equipment.
China. The next most interesting market for us is the Chinese market. During the forecast period, China, according to our assessment and the assessment of global institutions, will demonstrate the highest dynamics of development, including the dynamics of development of passenger transportation. This will ensure that China moves from 4th position, from the regions we are considering, to 3rd position, second only to the countries in the aggregate of the Asia-Pacific region and Europe, and ahead of the indicators in 20 years North America and all other regions combined.
We expect passenger traffic in China to increase by more than 3.3 times over the next 20 years. Based on the compound annual growth rate, we see that the Chinese market could be over 6%, which would lead to the valuation that we are demonstrating. Over 20 years, the Chinese market will require more than 7,000 aircraft. This is equivalent to US$1 trillion based on list prices. If we talk about the order portfolio that Chinese airlines already have, it covers only 19% of future demand in this market. And there is something to fight for here. We estimate that the greatest demand is expected in the segment of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of more than 120 seats. Currently, it is covered by 17% of orders, mostly Boeing and Airbus, as well as orders for the national Chinese C919 project. We believe that based on our current relationships and our potential development with China, we can claim a significant share of this market for the MC-21 aircraft.
Asian-Pacific area. If we talk about the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, but without China, it can be noted that, despite the relatively small excess of the growth rate of passenger turnover over the world average, the Asia-Pacific region in the forecast period will take almost the leading position in the world passenger turnover market. First of all, these are: India, Malaysia, Indonesia. These countries provide the main drivers for future development and make the Asia-Pacific region the most interesting market for all manufacturers, which can transform the structure of the world fleet in the future.
Regarding global passenger traffic, according to our estimates, the Asia-Pacific region will account for almost 20% of global passenger traffic by 2036. According to UAC, the total demand for new passenger aircraft in this market will be more than 8,600 units. At the same time, the emphasis will be on aircraft of greater capacity. Although, if we talk about the structure of orders, at the moment, based on our forecast, the current portfolio of orders already covers 43% of the expected demand. One such is essential distinctive feature In this market, it must be assumed that the demand for wide-body aircraft in this region will stand out in the general indicators of global demand; according to our estimates, it amounted to about 23%, which is slightly more than the world average.
Let's move on to the European market. For the forecast period, the European market for passenger transportation will retain its leading position in the world ranking, but will experience quite serious competition from dynamically developing economies. This will primarily concern long-haul transportation and wide-body fleets. At the same time, passenger turnover will almost double. The compound annual growth rate will be 3.5%. This is lower than the world average, but this suggests that the European market has already reached a fairly serious saturation in demand. Its current fleet is large enough to handle large volumes of traffic. At the same time, Europe’s share in the global passenger fleet will decrease slightly from 23% in 2016, and by 2036 it will be about 19%.
It is expected that in the next 20 years European airlines can purchase more than 8,600 aircraft. This forecast takes into account the fact that the European region is a leader in the ranking of secondary market donors. It is rapidly renewing its fleet, transferring older aircraft to other regions. If we talk about the current order portfolio, it can be noted that in none of the capacity segments does the current order portfolio cover demand by more than 30%. Naturally, in the same region, even visually it is clear, there is a high proportion of development of narrow-body fleets. The largest share is narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of more than 140 seats.
Latin America. According to our estimates, during the forecast period, the growth rate of passenger turnover Latin America will be significantly higher than the world, but the initially modest indicators of total GDP in this region will most likely lead to the maintenance of a serious distance in the total volume of passenger traffic relative to the regional leaders in passenger turnover.
At the same time, starting from a small base today, we expect a threefold increase in passenger traffic with a cumulative average annual growth rate of passenger air traffic of about 5.7%. But its share in the global passenger transportation market will not exceed 6.5% in 20 years. The total demand for new passenger aircraft is estimated at 3,400 aircraft. Of the announced firm orders for new aircraft, only 29% of our forecast demand is covered. We expect a record large share of deliveries in the segment of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 or more seats.
Near East. Also an interesting market for UAC. Along with China and Latin America, it will significantly outpace other regions of the world in terms of growth in passenger turnover, but it is small in population and has a small total GDP on a global scale, which will not allow reducing the distance between the leaders and this region.
We expect that by 2036 passenger traffic will increase by almost 3.2 times, with a compound annual growth rate of passenger traffic of approximately 6%. The region's share in total passenger traffic will increase from 9.5% in 2016 to 12%. This is a big leap. It is worth noting that we see more than half of the deliveries of new aircraft in the wide-body segment. Due to this, the share will increase to a greater extent. At the same time, 2/3 of these deliveries are expected in the segment of the group of wide-body aircraft, the capacity of which is higher than 320 seats. It can be said that airlines in the region will provide up to 60% of the total global demand for these ultra-large aircraft.
North America. The air transportation market of the region's countries will develop and follow general global trends, but, taking into account the redistribution of global economic activity, it will gradually lose its position. At the turn of 2036, this market will give way to the palm of transportation not only to Europe, but will also be behind China and the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, the volume of passenger air transportation, according to our expectations, will almost double, with an average annual growth rate of passenger turnover of 2.7 times.
A low figure, almost the same as in Europe, but this is due to the fact that the market is highly saturated, the initially large current structure of the fleet, the market saturation rate is already quite high. What is important, according to our estimates, the North American market share in the overall global balance will decrease from 24% to 17%, losing its position to emerging markets. A characteristic feature of the region is a high share in the expected demand for regional jet aircraft from 60 to 90 seats. This is about 19% of the total number of new aircraft in the region. At that time, according to general global averages, this segment accounts for no more than 6%.
Africa. Let us note the prospects for the passenger transportation market in Africa. According to the UAC, they will be determined primarily by more than a 50% increase in population over the next 20 years. Combined with rather modest indicators for the economic development of the region. The region as a whole is highly fragmented. Central and Northern Africa are very different from each other in terms of transportation indicators and in their structure of formation route networks. This makes certain adjustments that we took into account in our forecast. As a result, we give the African market an expectation that by 2036 the volume of passenger traffic will increase by 2.5 times, with a cumulative annual rate of passenger air traffic at the level of global indicators of 4.5-4.6%. The share of the global passenger market will remain virtually unchanged, for 2016 it is 2.1%, for 2036 - 2.2%. African airlines, through purchases on the secondary aircraft market, will satisfy about 41% of the total demand for passenger aircraft.
This circumstance largely determined the amount of demand for new passenger aircraft, which is represented quite modestly. There are less than 1,00 aircraft for 20 years. In this situation, contrary to the current structure of the fleet, we see that the market for wide-body aircraft promises to become the most profitable in this region. Let’s say, not in terms of the number of seats, but in terms of the amount of income that will come to manufacturers from the sale of this aircraft. We estimate the demand for wide-body aircraft alone to be more than 200 units over 20 years.
In general, if we talk about the structure of the market and demand that we forecast for a 20-year period, it can be noted that the global fleet will almost double and reach 47,000 aircraft. At the same time, it will be significantly updated, largely due to the fact that part will be due to the need to update the current fleet of retiring vessels, and part will be due to the need associated with the development of air transportation itself.
In the current forecast 20 years, we estimate that, in total for all markets, about 42,000 new passenger aircraft will be required. It is worth noting that this demand is influenced by many factors, both demand purely in the global economy and an increase in the global population. According to estimates by national and international organizations, the population will grow by more than 1.3 billion people in the next 20 years, which will amount to an increase of about 20%. Global GDP will increase by more than $50 trillion.
The doubling of the passenger aircraft fleet will be influenced by changes and modernization of the existing infrastructure, and the supply on the market of more and more aircraft with new efficiency indicators, which will lead to lower transportation costs and increased mobility of the population.
In many regions we expect government support for airlines. There are many national programs that stimulate the development and modernization of ground infrastructure and the development of airline fleets. It is worth noting that we see the largest increase (more than 140%) in the segment of large narrow-body aircraft. This is exactly the class where the MS-21 proposal falls.
We estimate that the fleet of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of less than 120 seats will almost double. As part of the implementation of the wide-body project, we see that the fleet of wide-body aircraft with a capacity of up to 300 seats will increase by more than 70%.
Thank you for your attention.
General characteristics of the world market
The growth prospects for the civil aviation market are highly dependent on rising aviation fuel prices and the average annual growth rate of the global economy and trade. At the average annual growth rate of the world economy in 2007-2025. At the level of 3.1% per year, the average annual growth in air passenger transportation over the same period will be 4.9%, and cargo transportation - 6.1%. Then, according to forecast estimates from Boeing Co., the volume of the market for new civil aircraft in 2007-2025. will be about 2.6-2.8 trillion. dollars. In the period until 2025, airlines will need approx. 28,600 new passenger and cargo aircraft. The global civil aircraft fleet will more than double from 17,330 aircraft (2005) to approximately 36,000 (2025). These will mainly be narrow-body (100-240 passengers) and wide-body (200-400 passengers) aircraft. 9,580 new airliners will replace less fuel-efficient aircraft being withdrawn from the companies' fleets. Most of them will be written off, but 2,220 passenger airliners will be converted into cargo planes. In addition, airlines will receive 770 new cargo aircraft.
Aircraft belonging to this segment, such as the Boeing 787 and Boeing 777, will allow airlines to grow successfully by operating more flights to more airports that meet the needs of passengers. Aircraft of the Boeing 747 class and larger capacity will be actively used on routes connecting Asian countries with other regions, as well as on transatlantic routes. According to forecasts, there will be a strong demand in the market for high-capacity cargo aircraft due to their high efficiency, reliability, flight range and excellent load factors.
The number of 30-60-seat aircraft operating in the world by 2015 will slightly exceed the 2000 units available in 2005, and by 2025 it will be 2500 units. At the same time, the number of cars with 61-90 passenger seats will increase from the current 700 to 1,700 in 2015 and 3,300 in 2025. The demand for cars with a capacity of 91 to 120 passengers will expand at the fastest pace. If in 2005 there were just over 700 of them in the world's airlines, then by 2015 the fleet of such aircraft will increase to 2,500, and by 2025 - to 3,800 units. In total, by 2025, 7,950 aircraft with a capacity of 30-120 passengers will be sold worldwide for about $180 billion.
The business class aircraft market is developing rapidly, and the trend towards expanding sales in it will continue over the medium term. In 2005, 737 business aircraft were sold worldwide, 850 were delivered in 2006, and in 2007 (according to preliminary estimates), the expansion of sales approached the level of 1000 aircraft. For the period 2008-2010. the total volume of orders is estimated at 3.1-3.4 thousand aircraft. The main customers will be North American companies (61% of orders), which must update their fleet of business class aircraft by 23%. Steady demand is expected from European countries, and it will expand as a result of rising incomes of the population of Russia and Eastern European countries. By 2011-2012 a jump (up to 50% compared to current levels) in orders from Asia, Africa and the Middle East is predicted.
In total, approximately 24,000 business jets will be produced worldwide between 2007 and 2025.
According to Boeing Co.'s forecast, by 2026 airlines will acquire:
3,700 regional aircraft (capacity less than 90 passengers);
17,650 narrow-body aircraft (90-240 passengers in a two-class configuration);
6290 wide-body aircraft (200-400 passengers in a three-class configuration);
960 aircraft of the Boeing 747 class and larger capacity (more than 400 passengers in a three-class configuration).
Geographies of world production and consumption
The global civil aircraft market is currently supplied primarily by the products of four companies: the long-haul aircraft market is the sphere of interest of Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EU), and the vast majority of deliveries of regional aircraft are provided by Bombardier (Canada), Embraer (Brazil) and ATR ( Italy). The positions of other aircraft manufacturing enterprises in the world, including Russian ones, in this market at the moment can be described as starting ones.
In 2006, the world leaders in the civil aviation industry produced ~820 mainline and ~250 regional aircraft of all types.
The largest market in the period 2006-2025. will be the countries of the Asia-Pacific region - 36% of the total amount of 2.8 trillion. dollars, which is due to significant demand for wide-body aircraft in the region. Airlines from North America will account for 28% of purchases, and Europe – 24%. The remaining 12% comes from customers from Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.
An additional operational factor for the Asian market compared to the American and Western European markets is the presence of large passenger flows with a short length of air lines. With a large market volume, this feature can lead to the emergence of modifications or types of aircraft designed specifically for the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
The number of countries producing aircraft is expected to expand. Traditional players in the long-haul aircraft market, the European aviation industry and the American Boeing Corporation, will face competition from Russian (UAC), Asian manufacturers (AVIC-I, Mitsubishi HI), as well as long-haul aircraft projects created by companies that are traditional representatives of the regional and business markets. aviation (Bombardier and Embraer companies). The market for regional jet aircraft will also gain multipolar supply due to falling into the sphere of interests of the aviation industry of developing countries. In addition to the traditional players represented by Embraer and Bombardier, who currently share the market almost equally, the Russian SSJ-100 and the Chinese ARJ-21 are possible to enter the market in the near future.
New products and technologies
The main trends in the technological development of the civil aircraft industry for the period until 2025 include the following areas:
development of environmentally friendly power plants (ensuring a noise margin of 15 EPNdB, as well as a 20% reduction in emissions of harmful substances);
improving the consumption characteristics of civil aviation aircraft (by an average of 20%);
improving the aerodynamics of the airframe (search for alternative layouts, implementation of the concept of a load-bearing fuselage);
implementation of the concept of a fully electric aircraft (development of engines with an integrated electric generator, electrical control systems for aerodynamic surfaces, an autonomous air conditioning system, electric mechanisms for retracting and extending the landing gear, restandardization of the on-board electrical system);
“black plane” – a constructive and technological solution to the problems of manufacturing an aircraft structure from lightweight composite materials (for example, with carbon reinforcement);
the use of nanotechnology to control the boundary layer, solve problems of increasing the strength of structures (nanomaterials), interactive diagnostics and taking readings of pressure, temperature, deformation, etc. (nanosensors);
global implementation of digital flight navigation aids using satellite navigation systems.