Departure of Russian tourists abroad statistics. “Let’s go and have a look”: after a steep peak, the flow of tourists from Russia abroad is breaking all records. How will the devaluation of the ruble and lira affect the tourist flow to Turkey and other countries?

According to Rosstat, in 2016 the number of tourist trips abroad by Russians amounted to 31.7 million. This is almost 8% less than in 2015. And according to the Border Service, in 2016 the number of departures from Russia specifically for the purpose of tourism decreased significantly more, than Rosstat data shows.

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Compared to 2015, departures fell by 18.5% and amounted to 9 million 873 thousand trips. This is 2 million 234.1 thousand less than in 2015.

Below the article there is a comparative table on the number of tourist trips abroad in 2014–2016.

Let us recall that since 2014, Rosstat has been publishing statistics in accordance with the recommendations of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), which considers tourists not only those who declare tourism as the purpose of their trip, but also those traveling by private invitation, on business, for treatment, neighboring country for groceries or other goods, etc.

And according to Rosstat statistics, the top ten vacation destinations for Russians are as follows: Abkhazia, Finland, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, China, Estonia, Poland, Germany, Thailand, Cyprus. Which, according to the travel industry, is only partly true.

A slightly different picture is painted by the data of the Border Service, which divides the outbound flow by purpose of travel. This includes trips for the purpose of tourism, and it is this indicator that we have been analyzing for many years, comparing the dynamics with previous years.

Figures received from the Border Service of the Russian Federation helped to understand that of the notorious 31.7 million tourist trips abroad, according to Rosstat, more than 21 million are so-called private trips. And if departures for the purpose of tourism decreased by 18.5%, then private ones - by only 2.4%. Apparently, this is the reason for the relatively small decrease in the number of “tourist trips” according to Rosstat.

In general, private trips make up the largest share of the total outbound flow from Russia. In 2016 - 38%. In second place are trips for tourism purposes - 29%. Further service personnel, crews Vehicle- 6%. Then business, then military personnel, then permanent residence.

Tourist departures from Russia have been declining since 2014. The hardest year was 2015, when tourist flows fell by 31%, which was the largest drop since 1998. 2016 turned out to be better, although it was not easy either.

Turkey was closed almost until the end of July last year, and Egypt has been closed since November 2015 and is still closed. Other destinations took away pieces of the Turkish and Egyptian pie, and in this situation, for the first time in many years, the top ten most popular destinations among Russians changed significantly. Now the top 10 looks like this: Thailand, China, Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Tunisia, Italy, Germany, Bulgaria, Turkey.

Thailand came out on top for the first time. This direction has been in the top 10 since 2007, and last years stayed in 5th–6th place, and in 2016 immediately jumped from sixth to first.

And Tunisia and Bulgaria entered the top ten leaders for the first time in their lives. Russian market.

Turkey, which has consistently occupied the first line of the ranking since 2002, thanks to its return to the top ten at the end of July, although it dropped to 10th place.

The largest increase in the top ten, and indeed in the entire list at the end of the year, was shown by Tunisia, it grew by 1327%. This is compared to 2015, when due to terrorist attacks practically lost the incoming tourist flow; about 41 thousand tourists visited there from Russia. But compared to the prosperous 2014, Tunisia increased by 140%.

In second place in the top ten in terms of growth dynamics is China (60%), which has been steadily declining since 2011, and with Turkey closed, it suddenly grew - most likely thanks to charters from different Russian cities on beach island Hainan.

In third place is Cyprus (55.5%), which has also been falling since 2014. Thailand and Bulgaria grew by 38% and 37% respectively. Greece grew by 23.5%.

In general, according to the list, many European Germany, France, Switzerland lost part of the Russian tourist flow. Austria, the Netherlands, Great Britain, Belgium.

They grew up mainly beach destinations- UAE, Vietnam, Montenegro, Israel, India, Dominican Republic, Georgia, Cuba, Morocco.

It seems that the closure of Egypt and Turkey was a kind of triumph for these areas. Everything and everyone is compared to them, and everyone understands that in a difficult economic situation, only in the absence of these two countries were other beach destinations able to grow. This also applies to domestic tourism.

The total departure of Russians abroad in 2016 amounted to 33.8 million trips - 8% less than in 2015.

Traveling abroad for tourism in 2016

according to the Border Service

(thousand trips)

Preliminary results of outbound tourism for 9 months of 2017.

countries visited by Russian tourists in 2017, according to statistics of outbound trips from Russia for 9 months from January 1 to September 30, 2017.

outbound tourism in 2017 shows that outbound trips from Russia abroad increased by almost a third. In 2017, outbound tourism grew by 20%-30% to the most popular destinations in Europe and Southeast Asia.

The number of outbound tourist trips from Russia for 9 months of 2017 increased by 27% to 30.972 million from 24.314 million for 9 months of 2016 according to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), which is almost equal to the number of outbound tourist trips from Russia abroad in 2016 at 31.7 million

Top 10 foreign countries popular with Russian tourists in 2017, the number of outbound tourist trips from Russia based on the results of 9 months was Turkey (3.944 thousand trips), Abkhazia (3.493 thousand), Finland (2.481 thousand), Kazakhstan (2.326 thousand), Ukraine (1.706 thousand), China (1,478 thousand), Estonia (1,285 thousand), Poland (929 thousand), Germany (918 thousand) and Georgia (802 thousand).

According to TourStat, in 2017 Türkiye is the leader in foreign trips of Russian tourists. Over the 9 months of 2017, the number of trips by Russians to Turkey amounted to more than 3.9 million, which is 8 times more than in the 9 months of 2016.

Turkey (3.944 million trips, +717% compared to 9 months of 2016), China (1.478 million, +25%) and Georgia (802 thousand, +35%) showed the highest growth in the number of outbound tourist trips in 2017 in the first ten countries popular among Russian tourists.

Beach destinations in Southeast Asia: Thailand (706 thousand, +26%) and Vietnam (360 thousand, +27%), Caribbean: Dominican Republic(Dominican Republic) (165 thousand, +117%) and Cuba (53 thousand, +130%) and the Middle East: UAE (454 thousand, +41%) and Israel (256 thousand, +20%) showed the most high growth of outbound tourism from Russia over 9 months of 2017.

Outbound tourism from Russia in 2017 increased to the most popular European excursion, resort and beach destinations: Spain (794 thousand, +19%), Italy (713 thousand, +28%), France (368 thousand, +22% ), Czech Republic (358 thousand, +42%) and Austria (185 thousand +37%) based on the results of 9 months of the year.

Outbound tourism in The CIS and the former USSR in 2017 grew to Azerbaijan (567 thousand, +16%), Armenia (279 thousand, +32%) and Moldova (205 thousand, +28%) based on the results of 9 months of the year, as well as Georgia (802 thousand, +35%).

Outbound tourism from Russia to the Baltic countries (Baltic) in 2017 increased to Estonia (1.285 thousand, +15%) and Latvia (301 thousand, +12%), but decreased to Lithuania (501 thousand, -8%) based on the results of 9 months of the year.

outbound tourism in 2017 is presented below.

: The most popular foreign countries among Russian tourists in 2017 (by the number of outbound tourist trips for 9 months of 2017):

1. Türkiye, 3,944 thousand (+717% from 483 thousand) *
2. Abkhazia, 3.493 thousand (+1%)
3. Finland, 2,481 thousand (+17%)
4. Kazakhstan, 2.326 thousand (+3.5%)
5. Ukraine, 1,706 thousand (+24%)
6. China, 1,478 thousand (+25%)
7. Estonia, 1,285 thousand (+14.5%)
8. Poland, 929 thousand (+11%)
9. Germany, 918 thousand (+19%)
10. Georgia, 802 thousand (+35%)
11. Spain, 794 thousand (+19%)
12. Greece, 792 thousand (+10%)
13. Cyprus, 738 thousand (+7%)
14. Italy, 713 thousand (+28%)
15. Thailand, 706 thousand (+26%)
16. Azerbaijan, 567 thousand (+16%)
17. Lithuania, 501 thousand (-8%)
18. Bulgaria, 463 thousand (-11%)
19. Tunisia, 458 thousand (-18%)
20. UAE, 454 thousand (+41%)
21. France, 368 thousand (+22%)
22. Vietnam, 360 thousand (+37%)
23. Czech Republic, 358 thousand (+42%)
24. South Ossetia, 332 thousand (0%)
25. Latvia, 301 thousand (+12%)
26. Montenegro, 288 thousand (+8%)
27. Armenia, 279 thousand (+32%)
28. Israel, 256 thousand (+20%)
29. Republic of Moldova, 205 thousand (+28%)
30. Kyrgyzstan, 199 thousand (+15%)
31. UK, 196 thousand (+23%)
32. Austria, 185 thousand (+37%)
33. USA, 182 thousand (+9%)
34. Switzerland, 182 thousand (+5%)
35. Republic of Korea, 169 thousand (+19%)
36. Netherlands, 166 thousand (+30%)
37. Dominican Republic, 165 thousand (+117%)
38. India, 127 thousand (+49%)
39. Uzbekistan, 93 thousand (+22%)
40. Tajikistan, 91 thousand (+6%)
41. Norway, 86 thousand (+13%)
42. Hungary, 79 thousand (+13%)
43. Mongolia, 68 thousand (+26%)
44. Belgium, 65 thousand (+23%)
45. Qatar, 57 thousand (+24%)
46. Cuba, 53 thousand (+130%)
47. Serbia, 58 thousand (0%)
48. Croatia, 54 thousand (+4%)
49. Japan, 49 thousand (+44%)
50. Sweden, 43 thousand (+39%)
51. Jordan, 36 thousand (+33%)
52. Portugal, 32 thousand (+60%)
53. Denmark, 25 thousand (-11%)
54. Slovakia, 22 thousand (+6%)
55. Maldives, 21 thousand (+24%)
56. Singapore, 20 thousand (+5%)
57. Morocco, 18 thousand (-36%)
58. Slovenia, 15 thousand (+25%)
59. Hong Kong, 13 thousand (-19%)
60. Romania, 9 thousand
    Other countries, 99 thousand

* The change in the number of outbound tourist trips for 9 months of 2017 compared to 9 months of 2016 is indicated in brackets.

On the portal of the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS) of Russian citizens outside the country in 2017. The data in the system is provided by the FSB of the Russian Federation.

According to the FSB of the Russian Federation (its structure includes the Border Service, which monitors border crossings), . This is 24.13% more than at the end of 2016, when our compatriots traveled outside Russia 33,827,420 times.

Of the total number of trips abroad by Russians, 31.87% were to the “near abroad” - CIS countries, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The leader here is Abkhazia with 4.358 million trips (+1.95% compared to 2016), however, it is obvious that this figure includes repeated movements of Abkhazian citizens with Russian passports, and it is extremely difficult to isolate the real tourist flow from it.

As for non-CIS destinations, it makes sense to focus again on the total number of trips, and not on the number of trips for the purpose of a “tourism” visit - the methodology for identifying such a purpose of a visit on mass visa-free destinations is so unclear.

TOP 20 OUTGOING DESTINATIONS IN “FAR” ABROAD IN 2017 U

In 2017, Russians made 28,604,030 trips to all foreign countries, which is 31.6% more than in 2016. The leaders of the TOP-20 (by the number of trips made in 2017 from Russia) were distributed as in Fig. 1.

Rice. 1. TOP-20 outbound destinations by the number of trips by Russian citizens in 2017 (excluding CIS countries, Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia)

Almost all countries from the TOP 20 showed an increase in the number of trips from Russia in 2018. The leader in the dynamics of growth in the number of trips was Turkey - +553.2%. Its results are mainly explained by the closed season in 2016.

After it, the best dynamics from the TOP-20 were demonstrated by the United United Arab Emirates: +53.7% compared to 2016. In third place is Vietnam with 30.1% growth year-on-year, followed by the Czech Republic with an increase of 27.4% and Thailand and Italy (growth of 25.6% and 25.5%, respectively).

Almost all countries from the rest of the list showed double-digit growth rates in tourist flows, with the exception of Cyprus (+6.25%) and Greece (+8.90%).

Three countries from the TOP 20 outbound markets, according to the Russian FSB border service, showed negative dynamics in the number of trips in 2017 compared to the previous year: these are Lithuania (-6.85%), Bulgaria (-10.3%) and Tunisia (-16.9%).

Among the countries outside the TOP 20, the dynamics of several countries are interesting. The Dominican Republic has the best results (it also has second place in terms of arrival dynamics in the general list of mass destinations, right after Turkey) - here, according to the FSB, the number of Russian tourists increased by 73.13% (to a figure of 239,862 in 2017 .).

In Cuba, the number of arrivals from Russia in 2017 increased by 60.1% (82,919), in Jordan - by 56%, in Austria - by 34.9% (264,082 trips), in France - by 22% (to 524 thousand), in South Korea- increased by 16% (279,133 trips), in India - by 29.1% (233,489 trips), in Malta - by 31% (14,240 trips).

It is interesting that despite all the visa difficulties, the outbound flow to the United States also increased (by 6.3%) (269,128 trips). The outbound flow to Saudi Arabia, reaching a figure of 7,745 people.

The completely unique “explosion” of the outbound flow from Russia to Tanzania is also curious: from 56 people in 2016 to 2345 in 2017 (an increase of 4187%). It has a simple explanation - this year it opened direct charter flights to Tanzania (Zanzibar).

The flow of tourists to Qatar also “increased” sharply in 2017 - by 33%, to 87.5 thousand trips. This is explained by the same thing as the very small, irrelevant figures of tourist flow * (see explanation at the end of the article) for some long-haul destinations, such as the Seychelles, Malaysia or Sri Lanka. Since the border service keeps records using boarding passes, statistics from Qatar (as well as partially from Singapore and, to a lesser extent, Korea) reflect an increase in flights to Southeast Asian countries with connections at these points.

Of the TOP 30 countries, in terms of the dynamics of tourist flow, in addition to Lithuania, Tunisia and Bulgaria, Morocco (-39%, and this is the most serious decrease in tourist flow from the entire list of countries with relevant statistics), Singapore (-10%), Denmark ( -7.3%) and Slovakia (-4%). All other foreign destinations from the TOP-30, judging by the statistics of the Russian FSB border service, showed an increase in the number of Russian arrivals in 2017.

MAIN COUNTRIES OF CLASSICAL OUTGOING TOURISM IN 2017

One more cross-section can be made - along the lines of classical tourism “for the purpose of recreation and excursions” (leisure). To do this, it will be necessary to exclude from the statistics foreign countries with a predominant share of cross-border movements for the purpose of shopping or other non-tourist purposes (China, Poland, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia).

The TOP 20 such countries in 2017 are presented below in Fig. 2.

Fig.2. TOP-20 outbound destinations in 2017 ("classic tourism" for recreational and cultural-educational purposes)

The number of trips (accurate to units) is indicated only for 2017 (purple row).

EXPLANATION OF STATISTICS

* Let us recall that in 2014, Rosstat (the coordinator of the EMISS), by order 510, introduced a new method for calculating the volume of tourist flows, one of the features of which is that when repeatedly crossing the border, a citizen of Russia or any other country will be counted as many times as he did. “Therefore, tourist flows are measured not by the number of tourists, but by the number of trips,” the Rosstat document emphasized.

Border service statistics are relevant for calculating the number of trips by Russians on mass outbound destinations in “far” abroad countries for the purpose of recreation. The number of repeat trips per year by Russian citizens here is not so large as to significantly distort the data on a number of foreign destinations in the far abroad in one direction or another. However, in several areas the discrepancy with foreign data on the number of Russian tourists in 2017 is significant, which is explained by different methods of recording trips).

It is also obvious that the data of the FSB border service, unfortunately, will not be relevant when calculating the number of tourists traveling to border countries such as Finland, the Baltic states or Poland, partially China, as well as to the CIS countries, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Obviously, here the share of multiple border crossings is much higher, since most of such crossings are made for the purposes of personal shopping or (as in the case of Ukraine and a number of other CIS countries) visiting relatives.

Also, such statistics are not suitable for accounting for trips of persons traveling with transfers on many long-haul routes, incl. visa-free directions (since here the main way to get into the country is air transport, and border guards only analyze boarding passes, which indicate not the final, but an intermediate destination). That is why, for example, in the statistics of the FSB of the Russian Federation the number of visits to the Seychelles, Mauritius, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand etc., and so large - in such non-tourist states for Russia as Qatar, whose capital is a large transit air hub.

FULL STATISTICS of the departure of Russian citizens abroad from the Border Service of the FSB of the Russian Federation for 2016-17. you can see .

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How many people visit Ukraine, will the devaluation of the lira lead to even greater popularity of the Turkish destination and why Syria is a center of business tourism

The departure of Russians abroad in 2017 increased by 24%, and the tourist flow itself increased by one and a half times. After a catastrophic drop of 30% in 2015-2016, the crisis in the tourism sector has been overcome. But how long will it last in light of the next devaluation of the ruble? The analytical service of Realnoe Vremya, having studied the data on tourist flows for 2017 and the first half of 2018, tried to figure out whether it is worth urgently flying to Turkey, which has returned to the tourist Olympus, “while everything is cheap there,” and whether we can hope for the return of mass tourist flow to Egypt with restoration direct flight to Cairo. In addition, we found out that politics influences outbound tourism quite selectively: for example, in 2017, 2 million trips to Ukraine from our country were recorded, and Abkhazia began to lose to Georgia in the eyes of Russians.

After the disaster: the flow of tourists from Russia in 2017 increased by one and a half times

According to Rosstat, the number of tourist trips abroad by Russian citizens in 2016 decreased by almost 8%, amounting to 31.7 million (according to Realnoe Vremya, 33.8 million). At the same time, as reported then, the decrease in outbound tourist flows in 2016 slowed down: in 2015, the decrease compared to 2014 was generally 20 percent. Obviously, this was due to the economic crisis and the devaluation of the ruble, which sharply reduced the purchasing power of the Russian population. Judging by the latest data from Rosstat, in 2017 the crisis in the tourism sector was overcome: the number of trips by Russians abroad increased by almost a quarter (by 24.1%), amounting to 42 million.

Here, however, it should be clarified that since 2014, Rosstat has been publishing statistics collected in accordance with the official methodology for estimating the number of inbound and outbound tourist trips. According to the recommendations of the World tourism organization(UNWTO), tourists are considered not only those who declare a similar purpose of travel, but also “those traveling by private invitation, on business, for treatment, for food or other goods” (“a tourist is one who spends money in the country that he earned outside this country"). As a result, to determine the volume of outbound tourist flow from the number of trips of Russians abroad, Rosstat excludes those who left for permanent residence, for the purpose of employment, taking a long-term training course, military personnel, and staff members social species transport. In addition, Rosstat data takes into account border crossings, and not the number of citizens leaving, which, of course, is much smaller (the same person can visit Abkhazia, Kazakhstan, Finland, Ukraine and other neighboring countries several times a year).

Tourism - departure from the Russian Federation

It is known that private trips make up the largest share of the outbound flow from Russia. Thus, according to data for 2016, they accounted for 62% of the total flow, in 2017 - 58%. Travel for purely tourism purposes accounted for 29.2% in 2016, and already 34.7% in 2017. These data indicate an increase in the tourist flow in the overall structure of those traveling abroad. This is also evidenced by the figures themselves on the growth in the number of people traveling for tourism purposes (excluding private purposes, business trips, moving, etc.). Thus, in 2016, the number of people traveling abroad with tourists was 9.8 million, in 2017 it increased to 14.6 million, that is, almost one and a half times. It is possible that 2017 will turn out to be only a temporary peak, after which a decline will follow again - especially given the August devaluation of the ruble, which is quite likely not yet completed (see below). However, on this moment, more precisely, in the first half of 2018, 7.3 million people left Russia for tourism abroad, 11 million for private visits, and in total Rosstat recorded 19.8 million trips.

Bring back Egypt: without charters to Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh, restoration of tourist flow to this country is impossible

The main event was the inevitable: Turkey’s return to the “Tour Olympus” and the first signs of Egypt’s return to the same Olympus. In 2016 from popular destinations, as you know, two countries once beloved by Russians fell out: Turkey lost 77%, only 842.3 thousand people went there, only a little more than half of them for tourism purposes (481.4 thousand); in the Egyptian direction in 2016, only 2.3 thousand departures were recorded. Let us remember that in the fall of 2015 after the crash passenger Airbus A321 over Sinai (heading from Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg), air traffic with Egypt was interrupted. It was resumed only on April 11, 2018, when Aeroflot and Egypt Air airlines again began operating flights between Moscow and Cairo.

However, experts and tour operators believe that restoring the massive tourist flow to Egypt is impossible without opening flights to Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh, “since flights to Cairo are inconvenient to use to send a large number of tourists.” Today, lovers of Egyptian holidays get to the same Hurghada by flight from Istanbul. And the numbers are still disappointing: in 2017, 3.2 thousand people flew to Egypt, in the first half of 2018, that is, two months after the opening of flights to Cairo, just under 5 thousand. Despite the fact that before the closure of Egypt in 2015, about 3 million Russians visited the country annually.

Tourism - leaving the Russian Federation for business purposes

After the “political fall”, Turkey returned to the away Olympus, beating both Abkhazia and Finland

Turkey “fell out of the statistics” for a similar reason: in the same fall of 2015, a Turkish F-16 fighter shot down a Russian Su-24 “carrying out bombing of ISIS targets (prohibited terrorist organization in the Russian Federation - ed.) near the Syrian-Turkish border,” allegedly for violating the state border, which immediately affected relations between Turkey and Russia. After the incident, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that it does not recommend Russians visiting this country, explaining this by “the increase in terrorist threats from Turkish territory.” On the recommendation of Rostourism, the sale of tours to Turkey by tour operators was stopped, and from January 1, 2016, the visa-free regime was also suspended. As a result, if in 2014 there were 4.2 million flights to Turkey from Russia (there were more only to Finland - 4.28 million), in 2015 3.4 million tourist trips were recorded (more only to Abkhazia - 3.8 million ), then in 2016 - only 842.3 thousand tourist trips.

In June 2016, after the coup attempt, the Turkish authorities decided to resume relations with Russia, and the flow of tourists to this country was resumed. As a result, there is a fivefold increase in outbound travel by Russians in general (including tourism): in 2017, 4.65 million outbound tourist trips were recorded, of which the vast majority were specifically for tourism purposes - 3.3 million. As a result, last year the Turkish direction became the absolute leader at least since 2013: both Abkhazia (4.3 million) and Finland (3.6 million) lost to Turkey.

How will the devaluation of the ruble and lira affect the tourist flow to Turkey and other countries?

Whether Türkiye will become a leader at the end of 2018 will be shown by the remaining season. It is obvious that the popularity of a particular destination and, in general, the increase in the number of Russians traveling abroad is influenced by several main factors. Firstly, geopolitical (the severance of relations with Turkey radically changed, albeit temporarily, the landscape of the tourism market). Secondly, the factor of stability in a particular country (which is why Egypt, where the situation still leaves much to be desired, still causes concern among many Russians). Thirdly and most importantly, economic. Thus, the fall in the solvency of Russians in 2015 affected the structure of tourist destinations. Already in the fall of 2016, experts noted negative dynamics in European countries, “where tourists go primarily for excursions and shopping.” These included Estonia, Austria, Great Britain, Germany, France, Switzerland, and Finland. It turns out that with a decrease in financial opportunities, Russians are canceling shopping and educational tours, but not sea tours beach holiday(which, however, is also decreasing, although not at the same rate). In addition, during the crisis, tour operators recorded an increase in demand for neighboring countries (since there are fewer costs, including for air tickets): Georgia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, not counting, of course, Abkhazia.

At the moment, the economic factor turns out to be a significant factor in the tourism market, and it operates, so to speak, “in both directions.” Firstly, the devaluation of the Turkish lira (it sank by 30% against the dollar and continued to fall) as a result of American sanctions, it would seem, should definitely lead to a reduction in the cost of the Turkish route. As a result, few experts rushed to suggest that Russians go to Turkey “while everything is cheap there.” In reality, however, everything is not so simple. Because prices for tours to this country for the Russian market (as for any other) are set in dollars and are fixed in advance. Both hotels and airlines enter into contracts for services in dollars, regardless of the exchange rate of the lira. An exception should be made only for individual tourism: “The seller is more willing to make a discount for someone who pays in American currency” (the purchasing power of the American dollar in Turkey has, for obvious reasons, increased sharply). Russians with ruble savings can also benefit, since “the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the dollar has depreciated by 20% more than the Russian ruble against the US dollar.” You can see that from mid-May to August 14, 2018, the Turkish lira fell against the ruble by almost 25%: today they give 10.9 rubles for one lira, in May they gave 14.

Tourism - leaving the Russian Federation for tourism purposes

If significant changes along the Turkish line do not happen right now, then we can assume that in the future Turkey will become cheaper (as a result, Abkhazia, Crimea and Krasnodar region). But here a “second thing” arises: due to American sanctions against the dollar, the ruble also fell, albeit not as catastrophically as the lira. And not all economists are sure that the short ruble peak will stop there. As a result, we can say that the tourist flow to Turkey, even in the short term, not to mention the long term, directly depends on the “race between the ruble and the lira” - which of these currencies will ultimately fall the most. In any case, with a truly painful devaluation of the ruble, there is no need to talk about a significant growth in the Turkish direction: tourism is still not an essential product or service, and it becomes one of the first victims of savings. In the short term, the devaluation of the ruble has already had an impact - air ticket prices increased by 5%.

Of the 2 million trips to Ukraine, only 6 were made for tourism purposes

In addition to Turkey, Abkhazia and Finland, the top 10 at the end of 2017 are Kazakhstan (3.18 million), Ukraine (2.3 million), China (2.2 million), Estonia (1.8 million departures), Thailand (1.14 million), Germany (1.33 million) and Poland (1.14 million). It is clear that in light of Russian-Ukrainian relations that leave much to be desired, there can be no talk of any official tourist flow to Square. And indeed, only... 6 people travel to Ukraine for purely tourist purposes! The main share in 2017 came from private trips (2.27 million), that is, from those who went to a neighboring country, relatively speaking, to visit relatives.

The same can be said about Estonia, where the bulk of trips are private, since the net flow for tourism purposes is an insignificant share of 26 thousand, and Kazakhstan (only 65 thousand went there for tourism purposes). In all three cases, it is worth assuming that the statistics here are dealing with immigrants from these countries who received Russian citizenship for work purposes, but who regularly visit their home countries. Indeed, in the top 5 countries with the highest number of trips for private purposes, the last three places are occupied by Kazakhstan (2.8 million trips in 2017), Ukraine (2.27 million) and Estonia (1.7 million). Nevertheless, given the mutual cold rhetoric between Russia and Ukraine, the million-dollar figures for Russians traveling to their neighbors cannot, of course, fail to cause surprise. We also note that direct air traffic has been interrupted between Ukraine and Russia for political reasons. As a result, the majority of Russians get to Ukraine by car (1.13 million) or... on foot (778.4 thousand). Most people traveled on foot in 2017 to Abkhazia (almost 2 million).

The purely tourist “top 10” at the end of 2017 is somewhat different, and it is closer to reality. However, Türkiye also ranks first in this category with 3.3 million trips abroad. Of course, all these departures take place by air (4.6 million, including business trips and the personnel of the aircraft themselves). In total, the net tourist flow to Turkey in 2017 increased 7 times - from 481.4 thousand departures in the problematic 2016. Among those that showed similar explosive growth, not counting the countries with negligible tourism traffic, are Abkhazia, where the number of departures increased 4 times, from 9 thousand to 38.5 thousand, and Sri Lanka - 2.5 times, from 4 ,3 thousand to 10.7 thousand. In the Portuguese direction, the increase was 1.8 times (40 thousand), in Cuban - 1.7 times (67.25 thousand), in Georgian - 1.7 times (181.8 thousand). Let us note that already in the first half of 2018, the number of departures from Russia to Georgia for tourism purposes amounted to 111.6 thousand. And we can predict a further increase in the popularity of the Georgian destination to the detriment of the Abkhazian one, where the indicator of departures from the Russian Federation by June 2018 fell to 8, 5 thousand.

Tourism - leaving the Russian Federation for private purposes

Tunisia made it into the top 10 favorite countries of Russians for the first time, but it seems not for long

In second place, oddly enough, is China, where 30% more Russians began to fly: if in 2016 there were 668.8 thousand trips to the Celestial Empire, then in 2017 - already 865.1 thousand. Thailand, beloved by compatriots, closes the top three with 821.6 thousand trips (an increase of 18%). Next come Spain (764.3 thousand), Greece (693 thousand), Italy (676.14 thousand), Cyprus (661.8 thousand), Germany (650 thousand), UAE (610.8 thousand). ) and Tunisia (470.5 thousand). From which we can conclude that Russians go abroad primarily for resort and beach purposes, since out of all ten popular tourist countries only Germany does not have, so to speak, access to the southern seas.

We also note that Tunisia made it into the top 10 for the first time, despite a decrease in popularity of almost 20%. And it seems that next year he will not be in this top 10 again. Thus, in May of this year, Rostourism called on tour operators selling tours to this country to inform clients about the unstable situation in it: “Against the background of socio-economic problems in Tunisia, protests by the population and student unrest are possible, especially in the capital and southern regions of the country; In addition, terrorist threats from ISIS militants (a banned terrorist organization in the Russian Federation) cannot be ruled out. But already in the first half of 2018, the flow to Tunisia dropped significantly (it seems that news from there began to reach Russians earlier): so far 200 thousand people flew there.

The rest of the favorite tourist destination countries among Russians showed growth in 2017. In addition to Turkey, China and Thailand, the flow to Spain increased by 15.3%, to Italy by 31%, to Germany by 27.4%, and to the United Arab Emirates by 62.2%. Stagnation is observed in the Greek direction: growth of only 6%. As a result, Italy may overtake Greece by the end of 2018. Moreover, according to the results of the first half of 2018, Italy has already overtaken it: 372.15 thousand tourist trips were recorded there, and only 247.8 thousand to Greece.

At the end of 2017, Cyprus also stagnated, showing growth of only 4%. As a result, according to the results of the first half of 2018, Cyprus has already lost to Germany: 242 thousand and 325 thousand trips for tourism purposes, respectively. The sharp increase in the popularity of the UAE among Russians brought this country into the top 3 according to the results of the first six months of 2018; people have already traveled there from Russia 451.8 thousand times. The Emirates left behind Italy, China, Spain, Germany, Greece and Cyprus. Ahead Arab country only Thailand (508.8 thousand) and, of course, Turkey (1.786 million).

Departure from the Russian Federation - moving to permanent residence

How sanctions and cooling of relations with the West affected Russian business trips

The UAE is also in the top 10 countries with the largest number of trips for business purposes: in 2017, 33 thousand people flew there from the Russian Federation, and already 14.4 thousand managed to fly there in 2018. The “business top 3” includes Kazakhstan (101.57 thousand departures), Germany (57.8 thousand) and China (57.8 thousand). Following the UAE are Turkey (31 thousand), Korea (30.2 thousand), France (23.5 thousand), the Netherlands (21.6 thousand) and Switzerland (19.6 thousand). However, business trips are directly affected by political relations between countries and the same sanctions: as a result, two more Muslim countries broke into the top 10 in the first 6 months of 2018, ahead of a couple of European ones in the number of trips. Firstly, despite the war, people from Russia have already flown to Syria 16.4 thousand times (which, however, can be explained not so much by business relations in general, but by contractual relations within the Russian Ministry of Defense). Secondly, Uzbekistan took 7th place in this ranking (11.5 thousand departures).

If the tightening of the sanctions regime continues not only from the United States, but also from the European Union, Germany may lose its position: in 2018, only 37.8 thousand trips there for business purposes were recorded, despite the fact that the German line has stagnated since 2014-2015 years: in 2017, the number of trips there from Russia fell by 0.4%, and amounted to 81.25 thousand. At the same time, the number of business trips from the Russian Federation to the United States is also falling: in 2016, 8.3 thousand were recorded, in 2017 - already 7 thousand (-16.4%). In 2018, only 3 thousand people visited America for business purposes from Russia. The cooling of relations between countries due to the Skripal case, as well as new sanctions, also affected business trips to the UK: in 2017, the number of trips there had already decreased by 4.5%, amounting to 18.3 thousand, and in 2018 it fell to 8. 2 thousand. That is, by the end of the year the bar of 18 thousand departures is unlikely to be achieved.

Interestingly, political relations have little effect on the purely tourist flow to the USA and Great Britain, although the number of visits to these countries by Russians, of course, is incomparable with popular tourist destinations. Thus, in 2017, the number of trips to the UK for tourism purposes increased by 27.5% (from 105.2 thousand to 134.2 thousand), however, this was even before the poisoning of the Skripals in March 2018. However, in the first half of this year, 61.14 thousand Russian citizens visited Foggy Albion. The USA follows the UK in the tourism rankings: in 2017, the growth of tourist flows to the States amounted to 16.3% (from 110 thousand to 127.5 thousand departures). But the flow fell catastrophically in the first half of 2018, when only 51.2 thousand trips to America for tourism purposes were recorded. The most likely reason is political cooling between the two countries.

Sergey Afanasyev

The tourism industry in Russia is approaching collapse - this is exactly the impression that those who scroll through news about tourism get. Bankruptcies of tour operators and airlines, declining demand, closure of popular destinations... It seems that business in tourism is finally lost his attractiveness, and you shouldn’t even think about opening your own travel agency.

But the largest market players continue to work and look to the future with optimism. Representatives of the tourism industry spoke about how they are adapting to new realities and why the crisis is best time for franchising.

Tourism business: what is happening in the industry?

In the first half of 2015, the number of Russians who traveled abroad on tour packages decreased by more than 30%. This data is provided by the Federal Tourism Agency.

Since the second half of 2014, the Russian tourism business seems to be haunted by an evil fate. At the beginning the industry was hit depreciation of the ruble, in the fall a number of tour operators went bankrupt, which significantly undermined both confidence in the industry and the desire of tourists to travel abroad. After all, travel has become much more expensive.

However, few have given up traveling completely. According to the same Federal agency According to tourism in 2014, the number of tourists traveling abroad fell by only 3%. Many simply preferred cheaper countries for recreation and independent booking of hotels and air tickets.

Early 2015 travel avoidance trend intensified. People have gotten used to the idea that they will have to save on travel, which, by the way, has risen in price by 25–30%. National currency also showed the wonders of instability, which caused concern among citizens and unpredictably changed the price of tours. Curator of a franchise network of travel agencies « » Maria Slugina says: “Against the background of a significant decline in income, it has become difficult for the population to plan vacation expenses. This hit hard, first of all, on early bookings.”

Particularly affected long-distance destinations with high airfare and countries where vacation costs directly depend on the euro and dollar. From foreign destinations, significantly Demand for Turkey and Egypt has increased, where you can go for relatively little money and save money there due to the all-inclusive system. Also in the summer of 2015, domestic destinations such as Crimea and Sochi became especially popular.

Over time, market players somehow adapted to the new conditions, and the increase in prices for tours allowed them to lose not so much revenue, although the flow of people traveling abroad decreased.

But since the fall of 2015, new troubles have befallen the industry. The first of these was the revocation of the operator's certificate from the second Russian airlines- "Transaero". This led to shortages in some areas and partial higher prices for air tickets. However, market participants note that everything turned out to be not so scary. The most popular destinations increased in price by only 10-13%.

A much more significant blow to the industry came from flight ban with Egypt due to the terrorist threat. This destination was the second most popular destination for the year and the most popular to book on new year holidays. According to estimates of the Russian Union of Travel Industry, tour operators lost about 1.5 billion rubles on this.

Some Russians abandoned tours altogether, and companies had to return money for canceled trips. The other part agreed rebook tours to more expensive Southeast Asia(Thailand, Vietnam), India, Israel and the UAE. It is difficult to say for sure what part of the tourists agreed to the exchange. Tour operators quote figures from 30% to 90%.

It is not yet known how soon the most popular tourist destination will return to the market again.

“The complexity of the situation with the ban on tours to Egypt is also due to the circumstances: the terrorist attack will have long-term psychological consequences - tourists have become afraid to fly abroad”

Maria Slugina from Ross-Tour explains.

However, among Russians there were those who were not afraid of the ban. Desperate travelers were looking for other methods get to your favorite resorts, for example, fly to Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh from Ukraine and Belarus or get to Taba and Dahab by landing in neighboring Israel. However, conscientious travel agencies refused to assist in this.

Other destinations were actively proposed, for example, competitively priced resorts Krasnodar region. True, even in these parts of Russia, a beach holiday in winter is impossible, so those who were in the mood to lie under the palm trees abandoned it.

Tourists with immediate departure dates immediately after the ban on flights to Egypt were offered alternative in the form of Turkey. However, here too, everything did not go so smoothly. On November 24, the Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber over Syria. This entailed a number of unpleasant consequences, including for tourism.

From December 1st they stopped completely charter flights to Turkey, and there was also a ban on the sale of tours to this country. It is worth noting that according to ATOR 60% of the outbound tourism market just fell on Turkey and Egypt that were closed to visitors.

It is also noteworthy that a number of tour operators operating on the Russian market have Turkish participation. Among them are such major players as Anex Tour. It is still difficult to say how sanctions against Turkey will affect them and their franchisees, but apparently these companies are not going to leave the market.

How do travel agencies adapt to new conditions?

All these shocks could not but affect tourism business. According to ATOR estimates, in 2014 - the first half of 2015, the number of tour operators in Russia decreased more than twice. At the beginning of 2014 there were 2 thousand of them, and by mid-2015 there were about 900.

The situation has had an even worse impact on travel agencies. Agents found themselves between tour operators and tourists, as if between a rock and a hard place. They had to directly deal with customer dissatisfaction after the cancellation of tours to Egypt and Turkey and deal with issues of compensation for damage, as well as legal difficulties with suppliers.

ATOR predicts that by the end of the year about 4 thousand travel agencies will close.

Deputy General Director of the network « » Makhach Ismailov reported that from the market non-professional players left: “Those who did not transfer money to tour operators on time and spent working capital on their needs had to close. As a result, when difficulties arose, such agencies were unable to cope with the cash gap.”

The years when demand for tourism products was growing rapidly seem to be behind us, but venerable market players are not going to give up so easily. And they don’t really have a choice, because stop working not so easy. Tour operators are constrained by the need to service previously sold tours, as well as obligations to partners and creditors.

For tourism market participants, 2015 was the year when stereotypical economic models stopped working, and therefore players have to adapt to new realities. As it appears, most, or even the entire next year we will have to do without sales of the most popular destinations - Egypt and Turkey. Therefore, first of all, tour operators will take on search for new directions.

Director for Development of the Rose of the Winds agency network Dmitry Podolsky expects that in 2016 the main demand will be for domestic destinations. Already very popular New Year's tours on ski resorts on Krasnaya Polyana, holidays abroad lost most of the audience. In the summer, Sochi and Crimea will undoubtedly take first place, the demand for which increased by 40% last season. The Federal Tourism Agency adheres to the same opinion. According to his expectations, the growth of domestic tourist flow in 2016 will be 3-5 million people.

The foreign destination will undoubtedly suffer losses, but they will be less than this year, since operators have already assessed the situation and began to take decisive measures. It is planned to orient tourists to European destinations.

Managing Director of the network « » Evgeniy Danilovich believes that the industry will adapt over time will return to previous volumes. But it is important to consider that now every client and every ruble counts, so business efficiency comes to the fore.

In addition to reorienting to new directions, other measures will have to be taken, for example, providing additional services in the form of sales of aviation and train tickets, hotel booking, lending and insurance.

Small single travel agencies In order to survive, you will have to actively develop your customer base, analyze and reduce current expenses, and do your best to reduce rental payments.

Traditionally, large networks survive crises much better than single players. They have the opportunity to redistribute resources, provide support, and well-known brands inspire more trust among tourists. Therefore, many of the experts surveyed recommend joining a large chain by purchasing a franchise. But will this really help?

Franchising in crisis

According to Maria Slugina from Ross-Tour, the demand for travel agency franchises It only grows in difficult times. “Our company receives requests to join the network every day, because a strong brand is now becoming one of the survival factors for small agencies.”

In addition, franchisees receive an increased commission from operators, and can also take advantage of the legal assistance of the franchisor, which is especially important in cases of cancellation of trips to Egypt and Turkey.

Deputy General Director of the 1001 Tour network Makhach Ismailov notes that already operating independent travel agencies have begun to join the network more actively:

“Now travel agencies hope that a well-known brand will attract new customers. In addition, by joining the network, they improve the quality of service.”

The players’ calculations, as a rule, turn out to be correct: lately people have been inclined to trust well-known brands more.

“Fly.ru” also notes that Demand for the franchise has not fallen. "In a row major cities There are still queues of those wishing to purchase our franchise, the dynamics of applications continues to remain at the same level,” reports Evgeniy Danilovich.

The Coral Travel travel agency network showed better development dynamics during the crisis year of 2015 and today has more than 820 sales offices, said Roman Salikhov, head of the franchising development department.