What are the real reasons for the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Qatar? Conflict between Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Causes, consequences, role of Russia, Turkey and the USA. Russian translation What is happening between Qatar and the UAE
Qatar once again rejected the ultimatum put forward by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the OAU. They demand, in particular, the closure of the Al-Jazeera TV channel, the Turkish military base, as well as the curtailment of relations with Iran and threaten new sanctions. Thus, the confrontation between Qatar and Saudi Arabia enters another, longer phase. From the outside, such a sharp development of the conflict is inexplicable, but it has its own deep historical reasons.
According to Austrian political scientist Thomas Schmidinger, the conflict between Qatar and Saudi Arabia was programmed long ago. The problem is difficult to resolve diplomatically, its roots are too deep, and this makes a forceful solution to the conflict very likely. Saudi Arabia has always been the dominant power in the Arabian Peninsula and controls major pipelines. All emirates Persian Gulf, including Qatar, were obedient vassals of the kingdom and, since 1981, were members of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf.
This regional organization was entirely controlled by Riyadh. However, in the early 90s of the last century, the situation changed dramatically under the influence of two factors:
— Saudi Arabia was unable to protect Kuwait from the Iraqi invasion and “lost face.” This forced the emirates to seek new guarantees of security, both economic and geopolitical. Along the way, Qatar has been ahead of its neighbors by strengthening bilateral ties with the US, Turkey and Iran. Naturally, this caused serious irritation in Riyadh.
— Also in the 90s of the last century, Qatar began to develop LNG (at that time a revolutionary gas liquefaction technology), and thanks to this it became largely independent from Saudi Arabia, its pipelines and transit. Qatar's energy independence entailed political independence. Qatar has crossed the “red line” from Riyadh’s point of view and has acquired its own clientele in the Arab world. Using enormous financial resources and the Al-Jazeera television channel, Qatar became a sponsor of “color revolutions” and radical Islamist movements.
Like Thomas Schmidinger, French expert Alexandre Kazerouni sees the roots of the current conflict in the situation that developed in the region after the 1990-1991 Gulf War. Then Saudi Arabia was unable to protect its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council, although this was a condition of its dominance - in exchange for a partial renunciation of sovereignty. The capture of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein's troops demonstrated that the Saudi roof was not reliable, and then Qatar began to look for new ways of self-defense. Including in the field of audiovisual propaganda.
Context
Gaddafi warned, but Qatar did not listen
Samanews.com 06/20/2017Qatar is a “victim” of Arab jealousy
Panorama.am 07/06/2017The Qataris took into account that one of the main pretexts for the American Operation Desert Storm was the publication of fake materials about the “atrocities” of Iraqi soldiers who killed babies in one of the hospitals in Kuwait. At the same time, the concept of Al-Jazeera was born - a powerful propaganda tool in the hands of the Qatari emirs. At the same time, Qatar is freeing itself from the influence of Saudi Arabia in the interpretation of Salafi (Wahhabi) Islam, common to the two countries.
Qatar gives “its” Islam a more radical, politicized character. Doha is becoming a voice of resistance to “anti-Islamic” regimes in the Arab world, which by default includes the “hypocritical” Saudi Arabia. Both countries finance Islamic radical groups and international terrorism, but rely on “their” regional clients. If Saudi Arabia is a sponsor of al-Qaeda ( organization banned in Russia - approx. ed.), then Qatar supports ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood ( organizations banned in Russia - approx. ed.).
The long-simmering conflict could receive impetus as a result of US President Trump's visit to Riyadh. Just a couple of days later, Saudi Arabia and its allies severed diplomatic relations with Qatar. It is possible that the Saudi leadership misunderstood the words of Trump, who is little experienced in diplomacy, regarding regional problems, taking them as a guide to action. This happens to Arab rulers: on the eve of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, Saddam Hussein also misinterpreted the words of the American ambassador April Glaspie, interpreting them as approval of the impending operation.
The ultimatum that Riyadh and its allies put forward to Qatar is a priori impossible to fulfill. Any state that has even the slightest respect for its sovereignty will not be able to accept it. This was confirmed by Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed al-Thani. He also said that the emirate could withstand the blockade declared by Saudi Arabia and its allies “indefinitely.” Sea and air supply routes remain open, and food will flow from Turkey, Iran and other countries. In particular, 4 thousand cows will be delivered from the USA and Australia.
In connection with the blockade, Qatar has already begun to expand seaport. Economically, the country can survive for quite a long time - thanks to LNG exports and huge investments abroad. Qatar has managed its oil and gas revenues extremely skillfully, investing them in more than 40 countries around the world, including Russian assets (19.5% of Rosneft). The Emirate owns 17% of the shares of the Volkswagen concern, football club Paris Saint-Germain, shares in Western banks, real estate in the most prestigious Western cities, as well as agricultural land in Africa.
Only a naval blockade on the part of Saudi Arabia or direct military intervention on its part can change the situation. Theoretically, this is unlikely, but Saudi policy is determined by the king’s unpredictable son, the young Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. He is the Minister of Defense and is pursuing an extremely aggressive course. It was he who started the war in Yemen, supported Islamists in Syria and Iraq, and now entered into a battle with Qatar.
As a result of the recent palace coup, Muhammad ibn Salman ousted the king's nephew, Crown Prince Muhammad ibn Nayef, from the throne and placed him under house arrest. It is difficult to predict what his next move will be. The main deterrent remains the presence of American troops, both in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
InoSMI materials contain assessments exclusively of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the InoSMI editorial staff.
On Monday, June 5, Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies announced they were severing diplomatic ties with Qatar, citing the tiny state's tolerance of Iran and Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United United Arab Emirates and Egypt decided to sever diplomatic ties with Qatar just a week after US President Donald Trump visited the region and joined Saudi Arabia in criticizing Iran for supporting terrorists in countries from Syria to Yemen.
1. What caused the diplomatic friction?
It's mainly about Iran. The spark that ignited this fire was a report by the Qatari state news agency, which included comments from Qatar's ruler, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who criticized the rise of anti-Iranian sentiment. Qatari officials quickly deleted the comment, blamed it on hackers and urged people to remain calm. Criticism from the Saudi Arabian and UAE media escalated after Sheikh Tamim made a phone call to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani over the weekend, showing clear disdain for Saudi Arabia's views.
2. Is it all about tensions between Sunnis and Shiites?
Partly. The Shiite-led Islamic Republic of Iran is the main regional rival of Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia. The two major oil exporters support opposing sides in several conflicts, including in Syria. Explaining the decision to cut diplomatic ties, Saudi Arabia cited Qatar's support for "terrorist groups seeking to destabilize the region, including the Muslim Brotherhood," Islamic State" and "Al-Qaeda" (terrorist organizations banned on the territory of the Russian Federation - editor's note). She also accused Qatar of supporting “Iran-sponsored terrorist groups” that operate in the kingdom’s eastern province, as well as in Bahrain.
3. Why did the rupture of diplomatic relations occur now?
The situation became noticeably tenser after Trump's visit. Days after Trump and Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz called Iran the world's top sponsor of terrorism, the kingdom and the UAE accused Qatar of trying to thwart plans to isolate Iran. Sheikh Tamim was criticized by newspapers, spiritual leaders and even celebrities. Al Jazeera's Riyadh affiliate accused him of stabbing his neighbors with an Iranian dagger.
4. What do analysts say?
Context
Cyberwar in the Persian Gulf immediately after Trump's visit. Coincidence?
Essada 06/01/2017Al-Jazeera launched an information war against Russia
Al Bayan 05/31/2017How little Qatar conquered a large region
Carnegie Moscow Center 05/13/2017 Inspired by the prospect of strengthening ties with the United States under the Trump administration, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are trying to crush any opposition that seeks to weaken the united front fighting Iranian influence in the Middle East. The two countries are also trying to pressure Qatar to stop providing aid to Islamist movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip.5. What is Iran saying?
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who was re-elected to a second four-year term in May, says his country is ready to begin negotiations to resolve the crisis. At the same time, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields more power than Rouhani, said the Saudi regime was experiencing some decline due to its policies in Yemen. In 2015, Saudi Arabia created a coalition of Sunni states to fight Shiite rebels in Yemen, allied to Iran, who had succeeded in overthrowing a Gulf-backed government. The war in Yemen continues.
6. Where else do the interests of Saudi Arabia and Iran collide?
The two states support opposite sides of conflicts in several countries in the region, from Syria to Yemen. Suspicions that Iran was behind cyberattacks on Saudi government agencies threatened to further heighten tensions between the two countries in late 2016. Earlier in 2016, following the execution of an influential Shia cleric in Saudi Arabia, protesters set fire to the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, causing Saudi Arabia to sever diplomatic ties with Iran.
7. Is there anything new in the dispute with Qatar?
In 2014, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain temporarily recalled their ambassadors from Qatar. Then the cause of friction was Egypt, where Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood government, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE sponsored a military coup. In addition, Hamas and Taliban leaders have found refuge in Qatar. Analysts say Saudi Arabia and its allies want to show Qatar - a country of 2.6 million people - that it is trying to punch above its strategic weight class.
8. Isn't Qatar trying to do this?
Now to a lesser extent. During the Arab Spring uprisings, Qatar's leadership supported groups calling for change—an outlier among Middle Eastern governments. The Muslim Brotherhood groups have largely failed since then, and in 2014, facing threats from its Gulf neighbors, Qatar withdrew its support. Qatar also aims to become a leading mediator in the region. Its leaders maintain ties to a wide variety of parties, from warring tribes in Libya and the Taliban to the United States. On the other hand, by supporting certain parties in the Arab Spring revolutions, Qatar almost lost its status as a neutral mediator.
9. What else can be said about Qatar?
It is the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas and boasts the world's highest per capita income. Qatar will host the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The headquarters of the Al Jazeera television channel is also located there. When Saudi Arabia refused to host an American air control center in the region in 2003, Qatar offered its services. Today there are 10 thousand military personnel there. (In May, Trump held talks with Sheikh Tamim regarding Qatar's purchase of American military equipment. At the time, Trump said that the United States and Qatar had “been friends for a long time.”)
10. How will the severance of diplomatic ties affect markets?
Any friction in the region causes unrest in the markets. Disputes between Gulf countries could limit their attractiveness to foreign investors. Even before Trump's visit, Citigroup representatives noted that rising tensions between the United States and Iran could have a "significant" impact on oil and financial markets. Qatar securities lost 5% of their value.
11. How are current tensions different from previous ones?
“Internal divisions and disputes are nothing new, but the timing and the unprecedented level of pressure are particularly noteworthy,” said Mehran Kamrava, director of the Center for International Area Studies at Georgetown University in Qatar, referring to the recent visit Trump. This suggests that “Saudi Arabia and the UAE want to completely subjugate Qatar.”
InoSMI materials contain assessments exclusively of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the InoSMI editorial staff.
Major Arab powers announced a severance of relations with Qatar, accusing it of financing terrorism and interfering in the internal affairs of neighboring states.
Eight countries - Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Yemen, Egypt, Libya, Republic of Maldives and Mauritius - one after another stopped diplomatic relations with Qatar.
Strict measures followed the tour of the American president.
Korrespondent.net figured out why the Gulf countries decided to isolate Qatar and what this would lead to.
What is Qatar accused of?
This is not the first time that Qatar has been criticized for its support of Islamist movements. The UAE is particularly opposed to Doha's ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, as Abu Dhabi views them as a mortal threat to the Gulf.
Qatar has also supported and is supporting Islamist parties and rebel groups in various conflicts, including Libya and Syria.
He is considered the most aggressive ally of Islamist groups in Syria seeking to topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Critics say it is indirectly helping al-Qaeda-linked groups such as Tahrir al-Sham.
Assistance was provided in the form of ransom payments for the release of hostages.
Regionally, Doha has forged closer ties with Turkey, which has similar principles in supporting Islamist groups in Syria. A Turkish military base has opened in Qatar.
Qatar acknowledges that its position on political Islam differs from that of its neighboring states and notes that it supports organizations that are widely popular among the masses.
Qatar denies supporting armed terrorist groups.
The last straw for its disgruntled neighbors was the $1 billion ransom that Doha paid to the Iranians and jihadists for the release of members of the royal family kidnapped during a hunt.
According to the Financial Times, about 400 million euros ended up in Iran, 300 million were to be received through Hezbollah by Iraqi militants, and the rest by the Syrian group Tahrir al-Sham, associated with al-Qaeda.
The countries of the region considered this story a cover for financing terrorists and a betrayal of the pan-Sunni cause.
In addition, observers note that the reason for the sudden isolation of Qatar could be the discontent of Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh claims leadership in the region, but wealthy Qatar has an independent policy and wants to mediate in numerous conflicts in the Gulf.
Doha also maintained ties with Iran and was the only Sunni country to congratulate Hassan Rouhani on his recent re-election as president.
How the Gulf countries responded
On June 5, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were the first to announce the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar.
Bahrain announced attempts to interfere in domestic politics, destabilize the situation in the region and finance Iranian-backed terrorist groups.
The country announced the cessation of maritime and air traffic, the expulsion of all diplomats. In addition, Bahrain will expel all Qatari citizens in the next 14 days and ban its citizens from visiting the country.
Saudi Arabia took the same measures, explaining its decision as protection against terrorism and extremism.
Yemen and Livaya, also suffering from civil war, joined the demarche.
The United Arab Emirates cited Qatar as destabilizing the region and creating security threats.
Egypt has directly accused Qatar of financing and supporting the Islamic State, al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Mauritius and the Maldives also joined the blockade.
The scandal in the Persian Gulf broke out two days after Donald Trump's visit.
Last month, the Qatari state news agency published a statement purportedly made by Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, in which he expressed support for the Muslim Brotherhood and offered peace to Iran.
Doha claims that the agency was then subjected to a hacker attack. But Saudi Arabia and the UAE did not believe Qatar's words.
Soon, countries in the region banned the broadcast of Qatari media. It should be noted that the Al-Jazeera channel is used by Qatar to undermine the influence of Saudi Arabia.
Worsening after Trump's visit
The intensification of the conflict between the US's Middle Eastern allies, which began in 2014, occurred immediately after President Donald Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia.
During this visit, he reaffirmed Riyadh's leadership role in the fight against Iran's interference in the country's affairs. Arab world.
Trump's tour was designed to unite American allies in countering Iranian influence and in the fight against radical Sunni groups.
Speaking to the heads of 55 Muslim states invited by the host party, Trump called for special attention to be paid to the problem of financing terrorism and extremism.
Trump in Saudi Arabia / EPA
Thus allowing the Gulf countries to isolate their independent neighbor.
Qatar produces oil and gas in the north of its territories together with Iran. Doha prides itself on its neutral status and hosts officials from organizations considered terrorist by many other states.
But according to Qatar's critics, neutral mediation has gradually turned into support for groups that actively act against the interests of the Sunni Gulf states.
Some observers note that America has no intention of excluding Qatar from the list of allies - the Al-Udeid airbase, owned by the US Regional Central Command, remains, as well as the largest investment of any country.
However, on June 6, Trump supported the isolation of Qatar. Traditionally, on Twitter, he first commented on the demarches of the Persian Gulf countries.
"During my recent trip to the Middle East, I stated that there can be no more funding for radical ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar - look!" Trump wrote.
He also noted that Qatar's isolation could mark the beginning of the end of the "horror of terrorism."
Extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)
Seven states at once - Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Libya and the Maldives - broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar. The countries demanded the withdrawal of all Qatari diplomats from their territory within 48 hours, and also announced the suspension of transport, sea and air communications with the state.
Doha is accused of supporting terrorist groups: Islamic State, al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood ( all organizations are banned in Russia — Ed.).
The Qatari authorities in response say: a “provocative campaign” is being waged against the country; there are no real reasons for breaking off relations: “The goal is clear - to establish trusteeship over the state. This is a violation of its sovereignty, which is strictly prohibited.”
The media coverage of the already big diplomatic scandal is added by the fact that it broke out shortly after the visit of US President Donald Trump (the US is a traditional ally of Qatar, the country has a large American military base) to the Middle East - to Saudi Arabia and Israel, where Trump was looking for and found support for pressure on Iran. And then suddenly - a scandal.
What's happened? And how serious is this? By request " Novaya Gazeta“Orientalists Alexander Shumilin (Institute of the USA and Canada RAS) and Vasily Kuznetsov (Institute of Oriental Studies RAS) comment on the situation.
The scandal is greatly overrated
Vasily Kuznetsov, Head of the Center for Arabic and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences: The form of breakups in the media is overrated. Several years ago, countries already broke off relations in a similar way.
Qatar and its neighbors have long-standing differences
Alexander Shumilin,Head of the Center for Analysis of Middle Eastern Conflicts, Institute of USA and Canada, Russian Academy of Sciences: Qatar, like Turkey, does not consider the Muslim Brotherhood to be either an extremist or terrorist organization, and the Gulf monarchies, on the contrary.
Vasily Kuznetsov: Over the past 7-8 years, relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia have indeed been difficult. They especially aggravated during the Arab Spring (2011), when countries found themselves on opposite sides of the barricades in connection with events in Egypt: Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood, and Saudi Arabia helped Abdel Fattah al-Sisi come to power. Today, Doha and Riyadh do not have the same positions on both Libya and Syria. Both there and there they argue which part of the opposition should be supported.
Reference
The Muslim Brotherhood movement began in Egypt in 1928 as a reaction to the disappearances of the 1920s. Ottoman Empire. The movement's founder, Islamic cleric Hasan al-Banna, and his supporters advocated the creation of an Islamic state that could counter the Western idea of a secular state.
In June 2012, a representative of the movement, Mohamed Morsi, won the presidential elections in Egypt, and a year later he was overthrown in a coup. In September 2013, the court banned the organization's activities in Egypt.
The Muslim Brotherhood is recognized as a terrorist organization in Russia, Egypt, Bahrain, Syria, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Differences in relations with Iran
Alexander Shumilin: Qatar's new ruler, who can (somewhat) be considered a man of Western vision, believes that relations with Iran should not be 100% hostile, with strategic cooperation on the horizon. This approach is contrary to the diplomatic practice of Qatar's Arab neighbors, which amounts exclusively to hostile rhetoric and joint actions against those supported by Iran (as well as the Houthis in Yemen and Assad in Syria).
Vasily Kuznetsov: There are two countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, that perceive Iran as an internal threat. For them, the Shiite population living in their territories is considered a protest “fifth column”. Oman and Kuwait have a more restrained position towards Iran. Difficult situation with the UAE. On the one hand, this is the second leader of the Council after Saudi Arabia. However, despite the consistency of positions, Iran remains the first trading partner for Dubai. Qatar has always declared itself as an independent force. To support this idea, Doha used finance and the Al-Jazeera television channel (which, by the way, is already beginning to be banned in some places amid a diplomatic scandal) as tools. At the same time, Qatar’s ambitions were not supported by anything due to the small capabilities of the armed forces and the vulnerable geographical location(the only land border with Saudi Arabia).
Is the scandal related to Trump's recent visit to Saudi Arabia? No
Vasily Kuznetsov: There is now much speculation surrounding Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia. But they are not justified, except by the very fact of Trump’s visit and the myth that the American trace is everywhere. Processes are taking place within the Gulf, and they are connected with differences within the Cooperation Council of Arab States.
What was the reason for the re-ignition of old contradictions? Two versions
Alexander Shumilin: Sudden incident. The Qatari news agency posted a speech on behalf of the emir, from which it followed: it is necessary to build relations with Tehran, and not subject it to sanctions. This instantly caused a scandal. The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs tried to justify itself by saying that the statement was the work of hackers. But Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain publicly “slammed the door,” and their allies soon joined them. And this is understandable. As already said: the “emir’s statement” looked quite plausible against the backdrop of general political trends in Qatar.
Vasily Kuznetsov: Qatar's statement on Iran, which was allegedly published by hackers, is one version. The second version is that as part of the course of creating an “Arab NATO”, with the support of the Americans, the Saudis decided to tighten relations with Iran.
Qatar's accusations of Doha's support for IS and al-Qaeda are also speculations
Alexander Shumilin: These Qatari accusations are completely false. They are designed to drive Qatar into a corner and force it to follow the approved (anti-Iran) line.
How can Qatar respond?
Vasily Kuznetsov: Qatar has the capabilities to counter.
“First of all, Qatar may withdraw from the agreement to freeze oil production, which will have a very negative impact on commodity prices.”
Another option is to take advantage of the internal conflict in Saudi Arabia, where Princes Muhammad bin Nayef and Muhammad bin Salman are fighting over the succession of the elderly King Salman. Qatar can use this in some way, but this threatens Qatar itself, which, if it reaches the “extreme point,” will not be able to resist Saudi Arabia militarily.
How will the scandal affect the lives of the Qataris themselves?
Vasily Kuznetsov: Yes, a number of countries have ordered Qataris to return to their homeland within 14 days. But for a small population small country with one of the world's highest GDPs, this is not a problem.
How will it all end? And when?
Alexander Shumilin: Undoubtedly, diplomatic relations will soon be restored. Once Qatar reaffirms its commitment to unity with neighboring monarchies, the situation will be resolved.
Vasily Kuznetsov: There are two options for resolving the conflict. The first is that Qatar makes concessions, agreements are reached with Saudi Arabia on the sidelines, and everything returns to normal. Next comes a “quiet” period, which does not at all mean the resolution of contradictions.
Second: Riyadh may decide that it will seek a change of dynasty in Qatar. This is a dangerous business; there has never been such an experience in the Gulf. Moreover, for neighboring states this will mean that the unity of the Gulf is broken and everyone may be at risk.
The conflict between the emirate of Qatar and its neighbors, primarily Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, has reached a boiling point. Seven Arab countries severed diplomatic relations with one of the richest and most influential states in the world, accusing it of supporting IS*, al-Qaeda and other terrorists. Oil prices could not help but react to the Arabian quarrel. What else could a new crisis threaten?
The multi-state decision with Qatar will likely not affect the OPEC and non-OPEC oil production cut agreement. This was stated by Russia's permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, Vladimir Voronkov.
“This is not the first time Qatar has reached the red line”
Be that as it may, the diplomatic conflict that broke out on Monday in the Arab world has already affected oil prices. The Russian Ministry of Energy, according to sources, the situation with Qatar at the OPEC monitoring committee.
On Monday, Saudi Arabia announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar. Six states have already joined the Saudi decision - Egypt, Bahrain, UAE, etc.
This is not just about diplomatic measures. Sea and air communications with Qatar have been suspended (EgyptAir and Emirates, in particular, announced support for the blockade). Saudi Arabia has also stopped ground connections. The authorities of these countries also banned their citizens from visiting Qatar and closed entry for Qatari residents. The Saudi government has ordered the Qatari TV channel Al Jazeera to broadcast on its territory.
What was Qatar accused of?
The Emirate of Qatar was declared guilty of supporting terrorism, destabilizing the situation and threatening the security of the region.
In particular, Egypt criticized the country's authorities for refusing to expel the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood. Libya's interim government has accused Qatar of supplying weapons to the Libyan branch of the same Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist armed groups since 2012. Qatar “poses a threat to the national security of the Arab world,” Libyan authorities said.Yemen has accused Qatar of supporting Shiite Houthi rebels. In addition, the emirate was suspended from participating in the military operation in Yemen (which is being conducted by a coalition led by Saudi Arabia). The coalition command accused Qatar of supporting the terrorist organizations Islamic State* and Al-Qaeda.
Qatar responded by announcing that it considers the decisions of Saudi Arabia and other countries to sever diplomatic relations based on unfounded accusations.
Why is Qatar important?
Qatar, which unexpectedly turned out to be an “outcast” for its neighbors, is one of richest countries peace. This absolute monarchy periodically tops the IMF's GDP per capita rankings. The small emirate on the shores of the Persian Gulf is the world's third largest country in terms of natural gas reserves. Qatar's oil reserves are relatively small (21st in the world in terms of exports), but the country is at a key point on the route for transporting Arabian and Iranian oil through the Persian Gulf.
The Al-Adid US Air Force base is located in Qatar - the American center for preparing air operations in the Middle East was transferred here from Saudi Arabia.
Not content with just economic influence, Qatar is pursuing its own political line, including influencing “sponsored” armed groups in warring Syria. An important tool of Qatar’s “soft power” is the already mentioned Al-Jazeera channel, one of the most influential media outlets in the Arab world with an audience of 60 million people. The 2022 FIFA World Cup is to be held in Qatar.
But “recently, Qatar has been experiencing economic difficulties associated with falling energy prices, since the price of gas is seriously linked to the price of oil,” noted Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications, in a comment to the VZGLYAD newspaper. He noted that many social programs began to be cut because of this. Russia is also connected with Qatar, the growth dynamics of trade turnover between the countries is one of the highest, and there are possible risks associated with Russian projects in which Qatar invests, the interlocutor pointed out.External reaction:US worried, Iran watching
The demarche of the closest US ally, Saudi Arabia, caused concern in Washington. “We... call on the parties to sit down together at the negotiating table,” called US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. The head of the State Department offered American assistance in resolving the situation.
The country that the Saudis consider their main opponent, Iran, has taken a wait-and-see approach. The severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar by a number of Arab states will only destabilize the situation in the region, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Iranian Presidential Administration Hamid Aboutalebi said on Monday.
Let us recall that at the summit of the Gulf countries and the United States in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, all participants led by the United States condemned Iran’s policies. However, later the Qatar News Agency published a statement by the emirate authorities about the need to improve relations with Tehran. Qatari authorities tried to explain that the site had been hacked, but Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain did not believe it.
Qatar turned out to be “guilty” of pragmatism and independence
Not long ago, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, said that his country should have good relations with all states, including Iran, Semyon Bagdasarov, director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia, noted in a comment to the Vzglyad newspaper. Qatar maintained relations with Iran, which Saudi Arabia has always opposed, said Vladimir Isaev, chief researcher at the Center for Arab Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in turn.
Qatar and Iran share the giant South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf. And for the Qatari authorities, “it is very ridiculous and absurd to follow the US views on Iran,” a professor at the Middle East Institute noted in a CNBC commentary. National University Singapore Peter Sluglett.
Who is friends with whom and is fighting in Syria and Iraq |
“This caused a storm of indignation in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE,” Bagdasarov noted.
Qatar has always been the enfant terrible of the Gulf Cooperation Council. And he was never forgiven for this, emphasizes Vladimir Isaev. The last straw was the creation by Qatar of a network of so-called opposition in Syria in opposition to Saudi Arabia. “All this led to the fact that the relationship was severed. Everything has been going towards this for a long time,” the expert emphasized.
Consequences: arming “our” militants and “pulling” Egypt
“Now it will be very difficult for the Gulf Cooperation Council to work, since one of the important members, Qatar, is isolated,” Isaev said. In addition, Qatar will actively arm that part of the opposition that it considers necessary: Ahrar al-Sham and others, while Saudi Arabia finances Jabhat al-Nusra and so on.
In addition, each of these parties will now influence Egypt. So far, Saudi Arabia has pulled him over, but a lot in this area will depend on how Egypt behaves further, Isaev pointed out. At the same time, the United States is unlikely to be able to influence the conflict, since it is tied to Saudi Arabia, not Qatar, the expert concluded.
The confrontation between Qatar and its neighbors “is a serious risk factor for the Gulf countries that produce oil,” Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications, stated in a comment to the VZGLYAD newspaper.
The Americans will have to "settle"
Another long-standing problem is associated with the chairman of the World Union of Muslim Theologians, Yusuf al-Qardawi, who called for the overthrow of power in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, notes Semyon Bagdasarov. Egyptian Qardawi, considered a mentor to the Muslim Brotherhood, is widely known for his Al Jazeera show Sharia and Life. Because of Qardawi, Qatar already had problems with Saudi Arabia, which even threatened to blockade Qatar.
“This is not the first time Qatar has reached the red line, and previously some Gulf countries have already severed or frozen diplomatic relations with it,” notes Dmitry Abzalov. In particular, the Saudis acted this way because of the problem with Qardawi. “But the Americans settled it then. I think they will sort it out now, it’s not in their interests for there to be problems among their allies,” believes Semyon Bagdasarov.
The pressure on Qatar “is certainly an attempt to get it to come to its senses” rather than supporting Iran or the Muslim Brotherhood, Peter Slaglett, a professor at the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore, told CNBC.
He noted that it is also important for the United States to put pressure on countries that support Iran, and they can use Saudi Arabia and other players for this. At the same time, Slaglett believes that an increase in tension to the point of escalation of the conflict is unlikely. “I don’t think it can lead to bitter hostility,” the expert emphasized. He recalled that “Qatar uses its soft power status as a US ally, on whose territory the largest American military base is located.”
All countries involved in the conflict “focus on the United States,” Bagdasarov, in turn, notes. Yes, some countries are trying to maneuver, even in matters of military-technical cooperation, for example, purchasing weapons from Russia, although the Americans are against it, the interlocutor added. “But in general, the strategic direction is towards the Americans,” the expert concluded.
* An organization in respect of which the court made a decision that has entered into legal force to liquidate or prohibit its activities on the grounds provided for by the Federal Law “On Combating Extremist Activities”