Which meteorite will fall on October 12th. Asteroid TC4 is approaching Earth. Is it possible to prevent a future collision threat?
A specialist from the United States of America, Judith Rees, reported on an asteroid with a diameter of about 40 meters, which with some probability could crash into the Earth on October 12.
Information recently appeared in the media about the coming “end of the world” on October 12, 2017 has been worrying Internet users for several days now. According to a number of scientists, asteroid 2012 TC4 will approach Earth at a record close distance.
The larger the asteroid, the less likely it is. The influence that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs is 65 million years ago. Experts believe that if a large and potentially dangerous celestial organism approaches Earth, current controls typically require several years to a decade to take protective action.
Is it possible to prevent the threat of a collision in the future?
“The obvious option would be kinetic action,” says Yen. That is, you can collide an asteroid with another object to distract it from its orbit. He pursues a so-called gravity tractor research approach, with a spacecraft flying close to an asteroid and deflecting it from its course through mutual attraction. IN emergency nuclear impact would be possible. But we have to leave it to the Americans. There is no willingness in Europe to test this.
Many conspiracy theorists immediately sounded the alarm, declaring a fatal scenario that would certainly unfold if a celestial body fell to Earth, but NASA astronomers were quick to declare that asteroid TC 4 was not considered a potentially dangerous object.
But smaller asteroids also threaten danger, as could be seen in Chelyabinsk. Former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweikart also encountered such objects. “Wherever we save lives or prevent things from being destroyed, we have to do it,” the 81-year-old told Der Spiegel.
Ian is aiming for an early warning system that can warn people who are at risk about a week in advance. “If we can tell people, stay in your basement!” It's like a tornado warning. You can predict it very well and avoid a lot of damage. This will be a big step forward.
The celestial body will approach our planet at a distance eight times less than the location of the Moon from the Earth. And yet, approaching the Earth, the asteroid will continue to move in its own orbit, which does not intersect with the Earth’s in any way.
Russian scientists also emphasize that the asteroid will fly past our planet on October 12, 2017.
Schweikart points out that this is not only about early warning systems and methods of protection and evacuation, but also about political preparation. In the case of cases, it should be clear who decides who, who launches rockets, who pays what amounts from their taxpayers. This is a planetary decision. We must do everything together,” he emphasizes.
On this moment budgets are quite modest. The focus is on discovery. Programs at the United Nations are "currently in the background." The films are exaggerated but positive. Movies about asteroid threats, such as Armageddon or Deep Impact, can even have a positive effect on Jan, even if they are usually completely exaggerated. The films raise awareness and help us a lot with funding. After such films, our budget constantly increased.
“The asteroid, about 40 meters in diameter, will fly past the Earth on October 12 at 7:42 Ural time. Compared to others, TC4 is very small, but it is the only one that will fly so close to the Earth,” the department of astronomy, geodesy and environmental monitoring of the Ural Federal University emphasizes in a statement.
Asteroids of the Solar System
We are always grateful when a film like this is made. Currently, it's about searching the skies for flying objects and closing observation gaps. But even then there will be no absolute security. Additionally, there is "an incredibly small residual risk that the comet is coming from afar and that we are only seeing it two years ago," Yen says. “However, the normal case is that we assume that we see the property in a timely manner and have sufficient time to implement appropriate measures and secure funding.”
According to scientists, there is so far no reason to fear the end of the world in the coming years due to the collision of an asteroid or meteorite with the Earth. They note that most often such “predictions” are made by dubious persons in order to gain popularity.
The asteroid, which will fly past the Earth on October 12, does not currently threaten our planet. The diameter of this cosmic body actually reaches 40 meters, which is twice as large as the diameter of the Chelyabinsk meteorite. Let us recall that on February 15, 2013, a meteorite fell in the vicinity of Chelyabinsk.
Nearby: A house-sized asteroid passes Earth relatively close this morning. The 30-meter piece will pass approximately 200 kilometers - just above the orbit of geostationary satellites. For astronomers around the world, the flyby is a chance to test the global asteroid detection and tracking network.
Exact trajectory known only recently
At the end of the Cretaceous, but also large craters like those in southern Germany show how destructive the impact of asteroids can be. Instead, the asteroid passes our planet at a speed of about a thousand kilometers per hour. Researchers say this is likely not the lazy, fast-moving clump's first pass through the earth.
Its diameter reached 15-20 meters, scientists believe. The damage from falling fragments of this meteorite reached 1 billion rubles. It should be noted that this celestial body was not detected before it entered the atmosphere.
After which experts from different parts of the world started talking about the need to create a reliable system for tracking space objects approaching the Earth.
Just past the satellite
However, it can only be observed using good telescopes- it is too small to be visible to the naked eye. However, for astronomers, the flyby is an excellent opportunity to experience the discovery and monitoring of near-Earth asteroids.
Asteroid monitoring test
As the asteroid passes our planet, researchers will test all components of the asteroid observation network. “This includes direct observations, precise trajectory determination and communications within the defense network,” explains Reddy.Asteroid October 12, 2017, news: our planet has never known collisions with an asteroid before
TC4 had already flown close to our planet, then the distance was ninety-four thousand eight hundred kilometers. The event took place in 2012, which is when it was opened. The dimensions of the asteroid are not clearly defined. According to various sources, they range from twelve to forty meters.
TC4, of course, is not the first cosmic body to fly near the Earth. Most often these are meteorites. They are the ones who periodically collide with our planet.
The consequences of such collisions do not bring anything good to the Earth, although only one of the global catastrophes is attributed to them - the one that occurred millions of years ago and led to the Ice Age. As for modern times, the disasters brought by the Tunguska and Chelyabensk meteorites were of a local nature.
There are no known cases of asteroid collisions with the Earth. In this case, scientists also do not observe a 100% threat. The concern is caused by two factors: the proximity of its trajectory and our planet, and also the fact that the asteroid has not been sufficiently studied, and therefore it is not possible to clearly predict its behavior.
The only indisputable fact is that even just flying past, cosmic body may have a negative impact on the Earth. It can provoke earthquakes, storms and other natural disasters. If it falls, global catastrophes will definitely await our Earth. And the place where he falls will be decisive whether he can survive at all.
Nothing can be said with certainty about the possibility of its fall. Astronomers do not make any predictions, since they do not know whether it will fall at all, and if it falls, where.
First of all, this happens because the totality of the data they have suggests that a collision will not occur. An asteroid flying by can be seen through a telescope.
To date, NASA has been able to detect 93% of large asteroids - over 1 km in diameter - that potentially pose a threat to our planet.
About a thousand such objects circle within 195 million km from the Sun. Scientists were also able to clarify the number of medium-sized asteroids (from 100 meters to 1 km) that are in orbit near the Earth: there were 19.5 thousand of them.
For the vast majority of people, apocalyptic scenarios of asteroids falling on our planet are the result of the imagination of science fiction writers. However, common sense suggests that such an event will happen, sooner or later.
And very soon, on October 12, 2017, asteroid 2012 TC4 will pass quite dangerously close to our planet. Despite the fact that the chances of a collision with the Earth are extremely small (about 0.00055%), such a turn of events cannot be completely ruled out.
What is known about asteroid 2012 TC4
On July 27 and 31, and then on August 5 this year, specialists from the European Agency space research observed asteroid 2012 TC4 approaching Earth. The observation was carried out using a complex of 8.2-meter telescopes of the European Southern Observatory.
We are talking about the first observations of this small asteroid since its first discovery - that is, since October 4, 2012. At the time of the last observation, asteroid 2012 TC4 was still very far from our planet, at a distance of about 56 million kilometers.
Since 2012, this TC4 has not been observed from Earth. The fact is that the apparent magnitude (that is, a measure of the brightness of a celestial body) of this asteroid was 26.4, which is very, very small (for example, for the brightest celestial bodies, including the Sun, negative values of this measure are used).
An object of similar magnitude is 60 billion times fainter than the planet Saturn when observed from Earth. The asteroid is approaching at a speed of 14 kilometers per second, becoming increasingly brighter. At its closest approach to Earth, the apparent magnitude of asteroid 2012 TC4 will be only 13.
Recent observations of the asteroid have made it possible to clarify information about its size (from 12 to 27 meters in diameter) and location, and also enabled scientists from the NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) to calculate its future orbit and the distance at which it will fly past our planet at the moment of closest approach to it.
The obtained calculation results indicate that the closest approach of asteroid 2012 TC4 to the Earth will occur on October 12 of this year: the space object will fly at a distance of 43,500 kilometers from our planet (this is approximately one-eighth of the distance of the Moon from the Earth). There are also less optimistic forecasts, which, however, are not intended to cause panic: according to them, the space object will not approach Earth closer than 6,800 kilometers.
Where will the asteroid hit on October 12?
NASA scientists are eagerly anticipating the upcoming asteroid flyby, planning to use the event as an opportunity to test NASA's network of observatories that are working on a planetary defense program. As part of the program for tracking objects potentially dangerous to our planet, further observations of the asteroid are planned both by NASA and by other astronomers.
Michael Kelley, director of the TC4 asteroid monitoring program at NASA headquarters, emphasized that today scientists' efforts are aimed at studying this asteroid in order to test the work of the worldwide asteroid tracking network. According to him, this will make it possible to assess the possibility of identifying a potential real threat from such space objects, as well as assess the ability to respond.
Is it possible to prevent the threat of a collision in the future?
In order to prevent the threat of an asteroid collision with our planet, it is necessary to detect the corresponding space object several years before the expected impact.
Objects with a diameter of up to several hundred meters are unlikely to cause a global catastrophe, although they can cause significant destruction if they hit infrastructure.
Another thing is asteroids with a diameter of several kilometers: the fall of such an object to Earth can most likely lead to a global catastrophe with subsequent mass extinction of all living things.
At the moment, the activities of many planetary defense programs are reduced to the observation and identification of potentially dangerous space objects. Moreover, cataloging of these objects began back in 1947, when the Minor Planet Center was founded at the University of Cincinnati, USA.
Today, we can talk about a dozen programs that monitor near-Earth objects as part of a global project called “Space Security Surveillance,” but in reality these programs are loosely interconnected.
It turns out that humanity today is absolutely defenseless against the threat of the fall of a large space object, which could threaten the death of all living things? Alas, this is true. However, a start has been made, future programs are being developed, telescopes are being built, and high-precision tracking systems are being developed.
And now we can talk about the successful results of this work, which made it possible to predict the time and place of the fall of a space object before its entry into the Earth’s atmosphere.
On October 6, 2006, the Catalina Sky Survey telescope located in Arizona, USA, detected asteroid 2008 TC3 approaching Earth. Thanks to the data obtained, appropriate calculations were carried out, which made it possible to accurately determine the time and place of the asteroid's fall: a space object with a diameter of 4 meters fell 19 hours after its discovery in the north of Sudan, in the Nubian Desert. If an asteroid were chosen as the crash site Big City, 19 hours could be enough to evacuate residential areas at the expected crash site.
Another question is what can humanity counteract the threat from the sky if it is recognized early? Now, essentially, nothing. However, intensive work is underway to develop potential options for repelling the threat, among which we can mention the detonation of a nuclear explosive device (the topic is covered in the blockbuster "Armageddon"), the so-called kinetic ram (a huge object of artificial origin crashing into a small asteroid), an asteroid gravity tug, focused solar energy, electromagnetic catapult and a number of other options.
Fallen asteroids
On September 1 of this year, NASA specialists observed the approach of the largest space object in the history of observations - asteroid (3122) Florence. The fall of this object onto the surface of our planet would hardly leave any chance for its inhabitants.
However, Florence passed at a distance of about 7 million kilometers from Earth. It is reported that today it is possible to observe asteroids with a diameter of up to 10 meters. Why then did the approach of the famous Chelyabinsk meteorite, whose diameter, according to various estimates, range from 17 to 20 meters, go unnoticed?
It is estimated that 32.5 seconds passed from the moment the Chelyabinsk meteorite entered the atmosphere until its destruction. According to NASA experts, this object belongs to chondrites of asteroidal origin (contains silicate elliptical or spherical formations, chondrules). This material does not reflect light well, so it has not been detected in space. In addition, it entered the atmosphere from the side illuminated by the Sun.
All these factors prevented the discovery of this object. This is not a very optimistic statement, given the fact that chondrites make up more than 90% of all stony meteorites that fall to Earth.
Asteroids of the Solar System
As the case with Chelyabinsk meteorite, falling objects (similar in size or smaller) can be expected at any time. If we talk about large asteroids, then already in August 2032 an object with a diameter of more than 400 meters will approach our planet.
In this case, the probability of a collision will be significantly higher than in the case of asteroid 2012 TC4 (about 0.002%). In total, in the relatively foreseeable future (within two hundred years), about 20 potentially dangerous asteroids will fly near the Earth, the largest of which is up to 1200 kilometers in size.
In fact, every month astronomers discover dozens of asteroids, but not all of them pose a potential danger to our planet. The estimated probability of a collision between the Earth and an asteroid comparable in size to the Chelyabinsk meteorite or asteroid 2012 TC4 allows us to conclude that such an event occurs once every 100 years.
Objects up to 1 meter in diameter fall to the Earth's surface every year. But asteroids several kilometers in diameter, like the one that supposedly destroyed the dinosaurs, visit our planet once every 20-200 million years!