Euro currency forecast for April. Is it worth buying currency in the current situation?

The adjusted euro exchange rate forecast for February 2018 is quite favorable for the single European currency, which cannot be said about the American dollar. Despite some fluctuations in this bi-currency pair, the euro feels quite confident and it is expected that it could rise to the level of 71 rubles this month.

Expert forecasts about exchange rates in Russia

With a stable ruble exchange rate, Russians feel more confident. Analysts are confident that the first quarter of the coming year in Russia will be calm for the domestic currency. And then it’s more difficult to predict.

Firstly, presidential elections will take place in March. Until this time, the Russian ruble, as experts predict, will maintain its position, and fluctuations will be insignificant.

Secondly, the OPEC+ (oil exporting countries) agreement to reduce production volumes expires in April. As the latest news reports, while it is in effect, it restrains the price of black gold, and at the same time the exchange rate of the national currency. For example, at the beginning of 2016, a barrel of oil was trading at $32, now it is $65. It is not yet known whether the agreement will be extended. If production volumes increase, the price of oil will begin to fall, which means that the ruble is in danger of another collapse.

Thirdly, anti-Russian sanctions can also affect not only world currency rates, but also the weakening of the Russian ruble.

What will happen to the euro from February 1: analysts' forecast

Meanwhile, the market is currently witnessing a depreciation of the bi-currency basket, and at the same time, a rise in the ruble. Experts associate the fall in the exchange rate of the European currency against the ruble with the recovery of the American dollar in the EUR/USD pair. However, already in February, as analysts forecast, a reversal in this pair is expected. " In February we are expecting from the coupleUSD/ RUBrebound to the area of ​​fifty-seven or fifty-eight rubles per dollar along with a rollback of the pairEUR/ USDto around 1.20“- said the head of the analytical department of the FTB Forex Alexey Mikheev.

Irina Komarova, an associate professor at the Department of Economic Theory at the Russian Economic University, agrees with him. G.V. Plekhanov: “ Expectations are high that the European currency will overcome the 71 ruble mark in February" The expert gives the following arguments:

• positive dynamics of key economic indicators of the eurozone, which creates the basis for sustainable growth of this currency;
• maximum growth in the manufacturing PMI index;
• high yields on eurozone securities.

In addition, if the European Central Bank raises interest rates, this will allow the euro to strengthen its position in the market. However, experts believe that this will happen no earlier than the second half of the year.

Euro exchange rate dynamics since the beginning of 2018

As for the foreign exchange interventions carried out by the Russian Ministry of Finance, they are restraining the growth of the ruble. This is expected to last until mid-February, but overall the month should be stable for the domestic currency. To summarize, we can say that from February 1 the euro will not go up sharply.

Euro forecast for April 2019: fresh in the table from an expert for every day of the month with rates. During the first quarter, the euro fluctuated by almost 4 rubles, which sowed a barely noticeable panic among owners of large sums.

In three days, the euro has grown by almost 5 rubles - this is the beginning of the sanctions! WITH A serious factor in the growth of the euro was the collapse of the Russian stock exchange that occurred a few days ago. All this is a serious cause for concern for those who are planning a trip or major purchases in Europe, or repaying a foreign currency loan.

The European currency is one of the most reliable in the long term, since even the American dollar will not have the most favorable consequences in the nth number of years. But for Russians, when dealing with EUR, extreme situations always arise - someone can earn good money, while others end up in large debts.

So, the euro forecast for April 2019 and the main trends that await this currency.

After peak figures (85.95 rubles) demonstrated a couple of years ago, this currency began to decline with minor stops. Oil prices began to rise, the Central Bank began to influence the monetary system, actively using its favorite methods of “freezing” and “sterilization.” However, as you might guess, such measures cannot maintain a long-term effect given the regression of the real sector of the economy. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicts an economic decline of almost 5% and, judging by the declared data on the decline in GDP and trade turnover, these are still optimistic prophecies.

Oil is stable and even growing. She began to grow little by little. Therefore, the euro began to grow. From May last year to the current moment, it has increased by 10 rubles. But the political situation and sanctions are unstable.

The latest forecast for April 2019 is shown in the table:

April number

Euro forecasts for April 2019 imply a significant increase to 90 rubles, with stops to 70-74 rubles. In early April, the euro exchange rate will be around 75-85 rubles. Further at the peak of trading there will be a big jump, then a smooth rollback and growth again. However, much depends on the resumption of trading in a number of areas that are significant for Russia.

After all, in fact, the euro changes its value little. This is the ruble falling.

It should be noted that even if the price of oil increases, there will be no return of the economy to previous levels, since speculative prices of black gold will not return to their previous level. The manufacturing-based European economy, which accounts for about 27% of global GDP, will still dominate the Russian commodity economy, which occupies 2-3% of GDP and shows a steady decline under sanctions. So the forecast for the euro is very rosy, especially in the long term. This is also indicated by the data on the 4-year cycle. The situation is similar with the forecast for the dollar in April; the American currency is more convenient from a liquidity point of view. However, the euro is more stable for long-term investments.

The euro forecast for April 2019 in the table assumes only estimated rates, but very close to the real situation.

The euro exchange rate today is of interest not only to investors who keep their savings in foreign currencies, in particular the euro, but also to people who monitor the dynamics of the euro exchange rate month by month, conduct international trading and non-trading activities, or monitor the situation of the country as a whole.

Of course, the euro exchange rate has an impact on the Russian economy. Many citizens are wondering whether it is worth continuing to keep their savings in euros, or whether it is time to transfer them to a more stable currency.

The general forecast given by many experts is that the euro exchange rate will fall starting in April 2016. This can be explained, first of all, by positive changes in the country's economy. First, Russia's gross domestic product is starting to rise, which can't be bad. Experts note that the peak of the decline occurred in mid-2015, which is why positive dynamics are now observed. The recovery of GDP contributes to the strengthening of the ruble, which, in turn, makes it possible to depreciate the euro and other currencies.

Secondly, the price of oil also stopped falling and strengthened at the level of 60-65 dollars per barrel of oil. This, of course, is not as good as we would like, however, this is already some kind of stability that can be supported by other positive recovery processes in the economy. Thus, it can also be said that the euro will fall due to these phenomena.

Since most experts note that the euro exchange rate will fall, we can talk about the inadvisability of storing your savings in euro currency. In this regard, various sources make different forecasts.

For example, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation notes that Russia is managing to gradually restore its economy against the background of the fact that the economic situation in the European Union is now noticeably deteriorating. In particular, this applies to Greece and Ukraine. the cost of oil, according to forecasts by the Ministry of Economic Development, will be at least 60 dollars per barrel, which will make the euro exchange rate in April 2016 within the range of 53-64 rubles per euro.

The analytical forecasting agency APECON also reports that in April 2016 the euro exchange rate will continue to grow. At the beginning of the month, this figure will be 85.45 rubles per euro. At the end of the month, the euro exchange rate will be 87.16 rubles per euro. During the month, the maximum exchange rate will be 87.16 rubles per euro, and the minimum will be 83.74 rubles.

But the PrognozEx bureau reports that the euro exchange rate will fall and at the beginning of April will amount to 91.31 rubles, and at the end of the month it will fall by 4.88 rubles and amount to 86.43 rubles.

Hi all! Today I have prepared for you a fresh forecast for April 2016. In it, I decided to touch upon such technical instruments as oil, dollar, euro and ruble, in general, all the most important things that might be of interest to my subscribers. Check out.

Oil price forecast April 2016

Let's start with the most important thing for all Russian citizens, namely the oil price forecast. Experienced analysts assure that in April 2016 the price of oil will continue to increase. The main reason for the price increase is the financial market’s anticipation of the results of the OPEC negotiations, which will take place on April 17. At the meeting, major oil-producing countries should agree to reduce oil production in order to increase its cost. You can find out more about this.

Due to the rise in oil prices (for comparison: in January, 1 barrel of oil cost 27 dollars, and in March – 40), investments in shale oil production in the United States sharply decreased, which also led to an increase in oil prices.

Due to the fact that the oil price forecast for April 2016 is positive, improvements are expected in the Russian economy. For example, in Russia, GDP indicators for the first quarter of 2016 have already improved.

The forecasts of the US investment bank JP Morgan, which predicted a decline in the Russian economy of 1.5-2%, did not come true. Thanks to the increase in oil prices, the decline was less significant and amounted to only 0.8%.

So, the oil price forecast for April 2016 suggests that oil prices will continue to rise in April, until April 17 for sure. No one can tell you the exact numbers, but presumably the price level will fluctuate around $45.

Ruble forecast for April 2016

The sharp fall of the ruble was provoked by a large number of factors, including the sanctions that were imposed on the Russian Federation. Experienced politicians and experts suggest that in 2016 friendly relations will be established between the countries, which will lead, first of all, to stability.

If economic and geopolitical factors worsen in the future, the ruble may become slightly cheaper. Moreover, in Russia there are still reserves that the government can, if desired, use to influence the ruble exchange rate. But since these funds are still in reserves, we can conclude that the government considers their use to strengthen the ruble inappropriate.

Experts have different opinions regarding the exchange rate of the ruble; some foretell its depreciation, while others predict an increase in price. The ruble exchange rate largely depends on the country’s economy and its policies. If suddenly the conflict continues in Ukraine or hostilities intensify in Syria, this will also negatively affect the country’s economy. When forecasting the ruble exchange rate, you should not lose sight of various force majeure situations that can also cripple the country’s economy.

If we exclude all possible negative factors, then we can say with confidence that the price of the ruble in April 2016 will continue to increase.

Due to the fact that oil prices are forecast to increase in April 2016, we can safely say that the ruble will also strengthen. So, until April 17, you can safely buy rubles on the daily time frame.

It is also worth noting that due to the rise in oil prices, shale oil production has become unprofitable, and therefore the volume of investment in this business has sharply decreased. If oil prices continue to increase, this will attract new investors, which will also have a positive effect on the value of the ruble. Based on all this, we conclude that the ruble forecast for April 2016 is favorable.

Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast April 2016

The price direction of the dollar/ruble pair largely depends on the value of the dollar, so it’s worth paying attention to it. The latest forecast for April 2016 is only positive for us. This means that the price level of the dollar/ruble pair will only go down. Experienced experts assure that the value of the dollar in April will be 62 rubles. Such conclusions were made by Natalya Milchakova, who currently holds the position of director of the analytical department of Alpari.

In my opinion, the fall may be slightly different; on April 17, the price level of the dollar/ruble currency pair will fluctuate between 60-65 rubles. A sharp jump in the price of this pair may happen on April 17, the day of the meeting of representatives of large oil producing companies.

It is possible that on this day the price may roll back downwards due to the fact that the meeting participants do not come to a common denominator. It is likely that the decisions made at the meeting will not confirm the forecasts, as a result of which the price will sharply go down. April 17 is an important day for stock exchange workers, for which they are preparing today.

If you are an experienced trader and know what you are doing, then on Monday, April 18th you can make good money. And if you are still a beginner and cannot predict the direction of price movement, then it is best to close all your orders before May 17th.

When discussing the direction of the price of the dollar/ruble currency pair, we should not forget about the dollar. The United States is interested in its currency being expensive, so they are trying in every way to keep it at a high level. Various emergencies in Europe lead to instability in the EU, as a result of which the euro becomes cheaper and the dollar strengthens.

If we assume that no emergency is expected in April, then we can confidently say that the price of the dollar/ruble pair will go down.

Euro exchange rate forecast for April 2016

According to Bloomberg experts, the euro will fall against the US dollar and other world currencies. This trend is due to the fact that the European Central Bank intends to further soften its credit policy.

In April this year, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates and also continue to implement the asset purchase strategy that started in early 2015. This, in turn, will lead to a further decrease in the value of the common European currency.

Bloomberg employees also claim that by the end of 2016, the value of the euro against the US dollar will decrease by more than 3%. In addition to the actions of the European Central Bank, the agency’s experts believe that the reason for this trend is the Fed’s increase in the key rate, as well as economic growth in the United States.

Whether these forecasts come true or not directly depends on whether the European Central Bank continues to implement current policies or changes its economic course.

Also, the exchange rate of the European currency may be affected by the changing situation on the foreign exchange market. Since, despite the forecast, oil prices stopped falling and even began to rise, this could lead to a depreciation of the dollar and an increase in the euro exchange rate.

You can safely use all this knowledge to trade in the month of April using the described technical instruments. I hope the forecast I collected for April 2016 will help you increase your profits in the Forex market.